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Sovereign Default Risk and Bank Fragility in Financially Integrated Economies

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  • Bolton, Patrick
  • Jeanne, Olivier

Abstract

We analyze contagious sovereign debt crises in financially integrated economies. Under financial integration banks optimally diversify their holdings of sovereign debt in an effort to minimize the costs with respect to an individual country's sovereign debt default. While diversification generates risk diversification benefits ex ante, it also generates contagion ex post. We show that financial integration without fiscal integration results in an inefficient equilibrium supply of government debt. The safest governments inefficiently restrict the amount of high quality debt that could be used as collateral in the financial system and the riskiest governments issue too much debt, as they do not take account of the costs of contagion. Those inefficiencies can be removed by various forms of fiscal integration, but fiscal integration typically reduce the welfare of the country that provides the "safe-haven" asset below the autarky level.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8358.

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Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8358

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Keywords: banking; collateral; European debt crisis; European Monetary Union; financial contagion; government debt; government default; international financial integration;

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References

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  1. Thomas Philippon, 2010. "Debt Overhang and Recapitalization in Closed and Open Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(1), pages 157-178, August.
  2. Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2006. "Sovereign risk and secondary markets," Economics Working Papers 998, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2009.
  3. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Martin & Stefano Rossi, 2012. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks, and Financial Institutions," Working Papers 462, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  4. Fernando A Broner & Jaume Ventura, 2006. "Globalization and Risk Sharing," Working Papers 307, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  5. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
  6. Bolton, Patrick & Roland, Gérard, 1995. "The Break up of Nations: A Political Economy Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1225, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Bolton, Patrick & Roland, Gerard, 1996. "Distributional Conflicts, Factor Mobility, and Political Integration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 99-104, May.
  8. Alberto Alesina & Enrico Spolaore, 1995. "On the Number and Size of Nations," NBER Working Papers 5050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "Structuring and Restructuring Sovereign Debt: The Role of a Bankruptcy Regime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 901-924, December.
  10. Edda Zoli & Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/222, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos & Velasco, Andres, 2008. "Money, Crises, and Transition Essays in Honor of Guillermo A. Calvo: An Introduction," MPRA Paper 13232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "Structuring and Restructuring Sovereign Debt," IMF Working Papers 07/192, International Monetary Fund.
  13. De Santis, Roberto A. & Gérard, Bruno, 2006. "Financial integration, international portfolio choice and the European Monetary Union," Working Paper Series 0626, European Central Bank.
  14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  15. Michael Kumhof & Evan Tanner, 2005. "Government Debt," IMF Working Papers 05/57, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  17. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Ejsing, Jacob & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2009. "The Janus-headed salvation: sovereign and bank credit risk premia during 2008-09," Working Paper Series 1127, European Central Bank.
  19. Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2009. "Structuring and Restructuring Sovereign Debt: The Role of Seniority -super-1," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(3), pages 879-902.
  20. Guido Sandleris, 2010. "Sovereign Defaults, Domestic Credit Market Institutions and Credit to the Private Sector," Business School Working Papers 2010-01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
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