Leverage-induced systemic risk under Basle II and other credit risk policies
AbstractWe use a simple agent based model of value investors in financial markets to test three credit regulation policies. The first is the unregulated case, which only imposes limits on maximum leverage. The second is Basle II, which also imposes interest rate spreads on loans and haircuts on collateral, and the third is a hypothetical alternative in which banks perfectly hedge all of their leverage-induced risk with options that are paid for by the funds. When compared to the unregulated case both Basle II and the perfect hedge policy reduce the risk of default when leverage is low but increase it when leverage is high. This is because both regulation policies increase the amount of synchronized buying and selling needed to achieve deleveraging, which can destabilize the market. None of these policies are optimal for everyone: Risk neutral investors prefer the unregulated case with a maximum leverage of roughly four, banks prefer the perfect hedge policy, and fund managers prefer the unregulated case with a high maximum leverage. No one prefers Basle II.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1301.6114.
Date of creation: Jan 2013
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Web page: http://arxiv.org/
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-02-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2013-02-03 (Banking)
- NEP-FMK-2013-02-03 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-RMG-2013-02-03 (Risk Management)
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- Blake LeBaron & Peter Winker, 2008. "Introduction to the Special Issue on Agent-Based Models for Economic Policy Advice," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 228(2+3), pages 141-148, June.
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