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Why Does Bad News Increase Volatility and Decrease Leverage?

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Abstract

A recent literature shows how an increase in volatility reduces leverage. However, in order to explain pro-cyclical leverage it assumes that bad news increases volatility, that is, it assumes an inverse relationship between first and second moments of asset returns. This paper suggests a reason why bad news is more often than not associated with higher future volatility. We show that, in a model with endogenous leverage and heterogeneous beliefs, agents have the incentive to invest mostly in technologies that become more volatile in bad times. Agents choose these technologies because they can be leveraged more during normal times. Together with the existing literature this explains procyclical leverage. The result also gives a rationale to the pattern of volatility smiles observed in the stock options since 1987. Finally, the paper presents for the first time a dynamic model in which an asset is endogenously traded simultaneously at different margin requirements in equilibrium.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1762R.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Date of revision: Jan 2011
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1762r

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Keywords: Collateral; Endogenous leverage; VaR; Volatility; Volatility smile;

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References

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  1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
  2. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "The Leverage Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 1-65 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Araújo, Aloísio & Kubler, Felix & Schommer, Susan, 2012. "Regulating collateral-requirements when markets are incomplete," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 450-476.
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  10. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2004. "Collateral Restrictions and Liquidity Under-Supply: A Simple Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1468R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 2006.
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  15. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2010.
  16. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1994. "Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds and the Real Sector," Working papers 95-1, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  20. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2000. "International and Domestic Collateral Constraints in a Model of Emerging Market Crises," NBER Working Papers 7971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2011. "Endogenous Leverage: VaR and Beyond," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1800, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2012. "Tranching, CDS, and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 190-225, January.
  2. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2012. "Leverage and Default in Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2013.
  3. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2014. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 4736, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Marco Cipriani & Ana Fostel & Daniel Houser, 2012. "Leverage and Asset Prices: An Experiment," Working Papers 1033, George Mason University, Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science.
  5. Balasko, Yves & Geanakoplos, John, 2012. "Introduction to general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 400-406.
  6. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2013. "Leverage and Default in Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000755, David K. Levine.
  7. David Backus & Axelle Ferriere & Stanley Zin, 2014. "Risk and Ambiguity in Models of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 20319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Angeloni, Ignazio & Faia, Ester & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Monetary policy and risk taking," SAFE Working Paper Series 8, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
  9. KURASHIMA Daichi & MIZUNAGA Masashi & ODAKI Kazuhiko & WATANABE Wako, 2013. "Is Leverage a Determinant of Asset Price? Evidence from real estate transaction data," Discussion papers 13082, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  10. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2013. "Financial Innovation, Collateral and Investment," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000750, David K. Levine.
  11. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2013. "Financial Innovation, Collateral and Investment," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1903, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2013. "Reviewing the Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1918, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Chiara Scotti, 2013. "Surprise and uncertainty indexes: real-time aggregation of real-activity macro surprises," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 1093, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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