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Rare Disasters and Risk Sharing with Heterogeneous Beliefs

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Author Info

  • Hui Chen
  • Scott Joslin
  • Ngoc-Khanh Tran
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Abstract

Risks of rare economic disasters can have a large impact on asset prices. At the same time, difficulties in inference regarding both the likelihood and severity of disasters, as well as agency problems, can lead to significant disagreements among investors about disaster risk. We show that such disagreements generate strong risk-sharing motives, such that just a small number of optimists in the economy will significantly reduce the disaster risk premium. Our model highlights the "latent" nature of disaster risk. The disaster risk premium will likely be low and smooth during normal times but increases dramatically when the risk-sharing capacity of the optimists is reduced, e.g., following a disaster. The model also helps reconcile the difference in the amount of disaster risk implied by financial markets and international macroeconomic data, and provides caution to the approach of extracting disaster probabilities from asset prices, which will disproportionately reflect the beliefs of a small group of optimists. Finally, our model predicts an inverse U-shaped relation between the equity premium and the size of the disaster insurance market. The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhs064
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 25 (2012)
Issue (Month): 7 ()
Pages: 2189-2224

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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:25:y:2012:i:7:p:2189-2224

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Cited by:
  1. Kadan, Ohad & Liu, Fang, 2014. "Performance evaluation with high moments and disaster risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 131-155.
  2. Peter Christoffersen & Du Du & Redouane Elkamhi, 2013. "Rare Disasters and Credit Market Puzzles," CREATES Research Papers 2013-45, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  3. Tran, Ngoc-Khanh & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2011. "The Behavior of Savings and Asset Prices When Preferences and Beliefs Are Heterogeneous," Working Paper Series rwp11-026, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  4. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," NBER Working Papers 19611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jaroslav Borovicka, 2011. "Survival and long-run dynamics with heterogeneous beliefs under recursive preferences," Working Paper Series WP-2011-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Carlos Arteta & Mark Carey & Ricardo Correa & Jason Kotter, 2013. "Revenge of the steamroller: ABCP as a window on risk choices," International Finance Discussion Papers 1076, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Yang-Ho Park, 2013. "Volatility of volatility and tail risk premiums," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Yiqun Mou & Lars A. Lochstoer & Michael Johannes, 2011. "Learning about Consumption Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 306, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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