Rare Disasters and Risk Sharing with Heterogeneous Beliefs
AbstractRisks of rare economic disasters can have a large impact on asset prices. At the same time, difficulties in inference regarding both the likelihood and severity of disasters, as well as agency problems, can lead to significant disagreements among investors about disaster risk. We show that such disagreements generate strong risk-sharing motives, such that just a small number of optimists in the economy will significantly reduce the disaster risk premium. Our model highlights the "latent" nature of disaster risk. The disaster risk premium will likely be low and smooth during normal times but increases dramatically when the risk-sharing capacity of the optimists is reduced, e.g., following a disaster. The model also helps reconcile the difference in the amount of disaster risk implied by financial markets and international macroeconomic data, and provides caution to the approach of extracting disaster probabilities from asset prices, which will disproportionately reflect the beliefs of a small group of optimists. Finally, our model predicts an inverse U-shaped relation between the equity premium and the size of the disaster insurance market. The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: email@example.com., Oxford University Press.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.
Volume (Year): 25 (2012)
Issue (Month): 7 ()
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Other versions of this item:
- Hui Chen & Scott Joslin & Ngoc-Khanh Tran, 2010. "Rare Disasters and Risk Sharing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 16035, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
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- Zeckhauser, Richard Jay & Tran, Ngoc-Khanh, 2011.
"The Behavior of Savings and Asset Prices When Preferences and Beliefs are Heterogeneous,"
5027955, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
- Ngoc-Khanh Tran & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 2011. "The Behavior of Savings and Asset Prices When Preferences and Beliefs are Heterogeneous," NBER Working Papers 17199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tran, Ngoc-Khanh & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2011. "The Behavior of Savings and Asset Prices When Preferences and Beliefs Are Heterogeneous," Working Paper Series rwp11-026, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
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- Carlos Arteta & Mark Carey & Ricardo Correa & Jason Kotter, 2013. "Revenge of the steamroller: ABCP as a window on risk choices," International Finance Discussion Papers 1076, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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