Isolating a measure of inflation expectations for the South African financial market using forward interest rates
AbstractThe inflation expectations channel of the transmission mechanism is generally recognised as crucial for the implementation of modern monetary policy. This paper briefly reviews the practices commonly employed for measuring inflation expectations in South Africa and offers an additional method, which is market based. The methodologies of Nelson and Siegel (1987) and Svensson (1994) are applied to determine implied nominal and real forward interest rates. The difference between the nominal and real forward rates (called inflation compensation) on a particular day is then used as a proxy for the market’s inflation expectations. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for other measures of inflation expectations, but should rather supplement these in order to offer an additional insight.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 09/2009.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
South Africa; Inflation expectations; Monetary policy transmission mechanism; Implied forward rates; Term structure of interest rates;
Other versions of this item:
- Monique Reid, 2009. "Isolating A Measure Of Inflation Expectations For The South African Financial Market Using Forward Interest Rates," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(3), pages 399-413, 09.
- Monique Reid, 2009. "Isolating a Measure of Inflation Expectations for the South African Financial Market Using Forward Interest Rates," Working Papers 127, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2009-06-03 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2009-06-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-06-03 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2009-06-03 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2009-06-03 (Monetary Economics)
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