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An Empirical Analysis of Financial and Housing Wealth Effects on Consumption in Turkey

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This paper investigates the financial and housing wealth effects on aggregate private consumption in Turkey for the period 1987-2007. Given the lack of data, the study proposes an innovative method to construct a proxy for the housing wealth series. A long-run equilibrium relationship between consumption, disposable income, financial and housing wealth is estimated using the cointegration method, and a sensitivity analysis is undertaken following Leamer & Leonard�s (1983) extreme bound analysis approach. The results show that income elasticity of consumption is much higher in Turkey than in industrialized countries. While financial and housing wealth effects on consumption are found to be positive, there is no evidence that one effect is stronger than the other.

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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia in its series MRG Discussion Paper Series with number 2809.

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Handle: RePEc:qld:uqmrg6:28

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  1. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 276-299, March.
  2. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & John M. Quigley, 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market Versus the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler, 2003. "Housing Wealth, Stock Market Wealth and Consumption: A Panel Analysis for Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  4. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
  5. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
  6. James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Working Papers 1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
  7. Bostic, Raphael & Gabriel, Stuart & Painter, Gary, 2009. "Housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumption: New evidence from micro data," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 79-89, January.
  8. Joakim Westerlund & David L. Edgerton, 2007. "New Improved Tests for Cointegration with Structural Breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 188-224, 03.
  9. Kim, Kyung-Hwan, 2004. "Housing and the Korean economy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 321-341, December.
  10. Eva Sierminska & Yelena Takhtamanova, 2007. "Wealth effects out of financial and housing wealth: cross country and age group comparisons," Working Paper Series 2007-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  11. Lance A. Fisher & Graham M. Voss, 2004. "Consumption, Wealth and Expected Stock Returns in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 359-372, December.
  12. Slacalek Jiri, 2009. "What Drives Personal Consumption? The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, October.
  13. Kivilcim Metin Ozcan & Asli Gunay & Seda Ertac, 2003. "Determinants of private savings behaviour in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1405-1416.
  14. Leamer, Edward E & Leonard, Herman B, 1983. "Reporting the Fragility of Regression Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 306-17, May.
  15. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  16. Edelstein, Robert H. & Lum, Sau Kim, 2004. "House prices, wealth effects, and the Singapore macroeconomy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 342-367, December.
  17. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
  18. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  19. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  20. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
  21. O'Donnell, Nuala, 2007. "Housing Wealth and Consumption," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 119-136, January.
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