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Structural Econometric Models in Forecasting Inflation at the National Bank of Poland

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Abstract

The paper presents the procedure and two structural macroeconometric models used at the National Bank of Poland for producing regular quarterly inflation projections. One of the models is a small macroeconomic model based on the New Keynesian Phillips curve, the IS curve and the exchange rate equation based on uncovered interest parity with risk factors. The other, more disaggregated model, explicitly focuses on the supply side and separates the steady state from short-term adjustments.

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File URL: http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/31_en.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 31.

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Length: 48
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:31

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Web page: http://www.nbp.pl/Homen.aspx?f=en/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/informacja_en.html
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Keywords: macroeconomic models; inflation forecasting;

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Cited by:
  1. Tomasz Åyziak & Jan Przystupa & Ewa Wróbel, 2008. "Monetary Policy Transmission Poland: A study of the importance of interest rate and credit channels," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  2. Lyziak, Tomasz & Mackiewicz, Joanna & Stanislawska, Ewa, 2007. "Central bank transparency and credibility: The case of Poland, 1998-2004," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 67-87, March.
  3. Przystupa, Jan & Wróbel, Ewa, 2009. "Asymmetry of the exchange rate pass-through: An exercise on the Polish data," MPRA Paper 17660, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 62, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  5. Ales Bulir & Jaromir Hurnik, 2006. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: "Saints" and "Sinners"," Working Papers 2006/8, Czech National Bank, Research Department.

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