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Wage, Price, and Unemployment Dynamics and the Convergence to Purchasing Power Parity in the Euro Area

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Author Info
Katarina Juselius (University of Copenhagen, Institute of Economics)

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Abstract

The paper discusses the determination of wages, prices, productivity and unemployment in the Euro-wide area in the post Bretton Woods period. The econometric results provide strong evidence on a regime shift at the start of the EMS and the empirical analysis is done separately for the two regimes. Two variables, measuring different aspects of the convergence towards European purchasing power parity, are shown to be crucial for explaining inflation and unemployment behavior in the more recent regime. The results point to the importance of being on a sustainable ppp level when fixing the exchange rates.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 03-01.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2002
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Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:0301

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Related research
Keywords: European unemployment; PPP convergence; Balassa-Samuelsson effect; cointegrated VAR;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
J5 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
  3. Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lothian, James R., 1997. "Multi-country evidence on the behavior of purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 19-35, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer, 2002. "Natural rate doubts," Working Paper Series 121, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Gabriel Fagan & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Katarina Juselius, 1998. "Changing monetary transmission mechanisms within the EU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 455-481. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "Modelling inflation in the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 4104, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 01 Jun 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Katarina Juselius & Javier Ordóñez, . "The Balassa-Samuelsson effect and the wage, price and unemployment dynamics in Spain," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 05-13, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Javier Ordoñez & Katarina Juselius, 2008. "Wage, price and unemployment dynamics in the Spanish transition to EMU membership," Working Papers. Serie EC 2008-09, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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