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Young and Out: An Application of a Prospects-Based Concept of Social Exclusion

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Author Info

  • Raaum, Oddbjørn

    ()
    (The Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research)

  • Rogstad, Jon

    ()
    (Institute for Social Research)

  • Røed, Knut

    ()
    (The Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research)

  • Westlie, Lars

    ()
    (The Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research)

Abstract

We develop a forward-looking empirical concept of social exclusion based on the estimated transition probabilities from a random effects multinominal logit-model. Youths are considered socially excluded if they are currently outside school/work and have a low predicted probability of re-entering in the near future. Implemented on extraordinary rich event history data of compulsory school graduates, we estimate social exclusion among Norwegian youths and find that social exclusion is (i) non-cyclical; (ii) rare among teen-agers, except for immigrant children and individuals with a disadvantaged family background; (iii) more prevalent among young adults in their early twenties; and (iv) independent of gender

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File URL: http://www.sv.uio.no/econ/english/research/unpublished-works/working-papers/pdf-files/2005/Memo-17-2005.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Oslo University, Department of Economics in its series Memorandum with number 17/2005.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 30 May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2005_017

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Phone: 22 85 51 27
Fax: 22 85 50 35
Email:
Web page: http://www.oekonomi.uio.no/indexe.html
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Keywords: social exclusion; multinominal logit-model; Youths;

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References

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  1. Brinch,C., 2000. "Identification of structural duration dependence and unobserved heterogeneity with time-varying," Memorandum 20/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  2. Atkinson, Tony & Cantillon, Bea & Marlier, Eric & Nolan, Brian, 2002. "Social Indicators: The EU and Social Inclusion," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199253494, September.
  3. Raaum, Oddbjørn & Bratsberg, Bernt & Røed, Knut & Österbacka , Eva & Eriksson, Tor & Jäntti, Markus & Naylor, Robin, 2007. "Marital Sorting, Household Labor Supply, and Intergenerational Earnings Mobility across Countries," Memorandum 17/2007, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
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  16. Raaum, Oddbjørn & Røed, Knut, 2003. "Do Business Cycle Conditions at the Time of Labour Market Entry Affect Future Unemployment?," Memorandum 12/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  17. Becker, Gary S & Tomes, Nigel, 1979. "An Equilibrium Theory of the Distribution of Income and Intergenerational Mobility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1153-89, December.
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  22. Bradley, Steve & Crouchley, Rob & Oskrochi, Reza, 2003. "Social exclusion and labour market transitions: a multi-state multi-spell analysis using the BHPS," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(6), pages 659-679, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Ekhaugen, Tyra, 2005. "Extracting the causal component from the intergenerational correlation in unemployment," Memorandum 21/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  2. Tyra Ekhaugen, 2009. "Extracting the causal component from the intergenerational correlation in unemployment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 97-113, January.
  3. Bratsberg, Bernt & Raaum, Oddbjørn & Røed, Knut, 2011. "Educating Children of Immigrants: Closing the Gap in Norwegian Schools," IZA Discussion Papers 6138, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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