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On the Role and E ects of IMF Seniority

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Author Info
Diego Saravia

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Abstract

The paper presents a three period model that studies the e ects of IMF loans on borrowers’ and lenders’ welfare highlighting the fact that the IMF has both de jure and de facto seniority rights over private creditors. It is shown that an IMF intervention affects borrowers and lenders in different ways. Ex-post, once capital is installed and a liquidity shock occurs, an IMF intervention always makes the borrower country better off. The e ects on non-senior lenders depend on the size of the senior intervention and on the country’s solvency situation. IMF intervention makes existing creditors worse off when the country’s solvency situation is either very good or weak, but makes them better off when solvency is in an intermediate range, consistent with the nonlinearities found empirically in Mody and Saravia (2003). The possibility of future senior intervention a ects the optimal level of investment ex-ante, and it may be the case that the borrower country would be better off by committing today not to borrow from the IMF in the future. Since a country has incentives to borrow from the IMF once the shock occurs, this promise is not time consistent and an institution with clear rules about when to intervene will be welfare improving

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 131.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:131

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Related research
Keywords: Seniority IMF ex-ante ex-post welfare e ects.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F0 - International Economics - - General
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Ashoka Mody & Diego Saravia, 2003. "Catalyzing Capital Flows: Do IMF-Supported Programs Work as Commitment Devices?," IMF Working Papers 03/100, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1998. "Private and Public Supply of Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 1-40, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Bolton, Patrick & Jeanne, Olivier, 2005. "Structuring and Restructuring Sovereign Debt: The Role of Seniority," CEPR Discussion Papers 4901, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Marchesi, Silvia & Thomas, Jonathan P, 1999. "IMF Conditionality as a Screening Device," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C111-25, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Anne O. Krueger, 2000. "Conflicting Demands on the International Monetary Fund," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 38-42, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ashoka Mody & Diego Saravia, 2005. "Catalyzing Private Capital Flows: Do IMF Programs Work as Commitment Devices?," Documentos de Trabajo 280, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2008-10-3.

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