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Sovereign default risk and commitment for fiscal adjustment

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  • Carlos Eduardo Gonçalves

    ()

  • Bernardo Guimarães

    ()

Abstract

This paper studies fiscal policy in a model of sovereign debt and default. A time-inconsistency problem arises: since the price of past debt cannot be affected by current fiscal policy and governments cannot credibly commit to a certain path of tax rates, debtor countries choose suboptimally low fiscal adjustments. An international lender of last resort, capable of designing an implicit contract that coax debtors into a tougher fiscal stance via the provision of cheap (but senior) lending in times of crisis, can work as a commitment device and improve social welfare.

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File URL: http://www.fea.usp.br/feaecon/RePEc/documentos/CarlosESGBernardoG23WP.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of São Paulo (FEA-USP) in its series Working Papers, Department of Economics with number 2012_23.

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Date of creation: 18 Sep 2012
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Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2012wpecon23

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Keywords: fiscal adjustment; sovereign debt; sovereign default; time inconsistency; IMF;

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  1. Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2009. "The Economics and Law of Sovereign Debt and Default," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 651-98, September.
  2. Marcel Fafchamps, . "Sovereign Debt, Structural Adjustment and Conditionality," Working Papers 96015, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  3. Michael Tomz & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Do Countries Default in "Bad Times" ?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 352-360, 04-05.
  4. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number sach89-1.
  5. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "One Reason Countries Pay their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade," NBER Working Papers 8853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Cuadra, Gabriel & Sapriza, Horacio, 2008. "Sovereign default, interest rates and political uncertainty in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 78-88, September.
  7. Diego Saravia, 2007. "On the Role and Effects of IMF Seniority," Documentos de Trabajo 317, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  8. Broner, Fernando A & Ventura, Jaume, 2006. "Globalization and Risk Sharing," CEPR Discussion Papers 5820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Fuentes, Miguel & Saravia, Diego, 2010. "Sovereign defaulters: Do international capital markets punish them?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 336-347, March.
  10. Bernardo Guimaraes, 2011. "Sovereign default: which shocks matter?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 553-576, October.
  11. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Guimaraes, Bernardo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2006. "International lending of last resort and moral hazard: A model of IMF's catalytic finance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 441-471, April.
  12. Martinez, Jose Vicente & Sandleris, Guido, 2011. "Is it punishment? Sovereign defaults and the decline in trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 909-930, October.
  13. Brutti, Filippo, 2011. "Sovereign defaults and liquidity crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 65-72, May.
  14. Leonardo Martinez & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Cesar Sosa Padilla, 2011. "Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk," IMF Working Papers 11/70, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Introduction to "Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System"," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 1-36 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Alfaro, Laura & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2005. "Sovereign debt as a contingent claim: a quantitative approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 297-314, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Guimaraes, Bernardo & Iazdi, Oz, 2013. "IMF conditionalities, liquidity provision, and incentives for fiscal adjustment," MPRA Paper 48896, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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