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Sovereign default risk and commitment for fiscal adjustment

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  • Carlos Eduardo Gonçalves

    ()

  • Bernardo Guimarães

    ()

Abstract

This paper studies fiscal policy in a model of sovereign debt and default. A time-inconsistency problem arises: since the price of past debt cannot be affected by current fiscal policy and governments cannot credibly commit to a certain path of tax rates, debtor countries choose suboptimally low fiscal adjustments. An international lender of last resort, capable of designing an implicit contract that coax debtors into a tougher fiscal stance via the provision of cheap (but senior) lending in times of crisis, can work as a commitment device and improve social welfare.

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File URL: http://www.fea.usp.br/feaecon/RePEc/documentos/CarlosESGBernardoG23WP.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of São Paulo (FEA-USP) in its series Working Papers, Department of Economics with number 2012_23.

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Date of creation: 18 Sep 2012
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Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2012wpecon23

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Keywords: fiscal adjustment; sovereign debt; sovereign default; time inconsistency; IMF;

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  1. Cuadra, Gabriel & Sapriza, Horacio, 2008. "Sovereign default, interest rates and political uncertainty in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 78-88, September.
  2. Michael Tomz & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Do Countries Default In "Bad Times"?," CAMA Working Papers 2007-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "One reason countries pay their debts: renegotiation and international trade," Staff Reports 142, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Miguel Fuentes & Diego Saravia, 2009. "Sovereing Defaulters: Do International Capital Markets Punish Them?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 515, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Saravia, Diego, 2010. "On the role and effects of IMF seniority," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1024-1044, October.
  6. Bernardo Guimaraes, 2011. "Sovereign default: which shocks matter?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 553-576, October.
  7. Brutti, Filippo, 2011. "Sovereign defaults and liquidity crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 65-72, May.
  8. Fernando Broner & Jaume Ventura, 2011. "Globalization and Risk Sharing," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 78(1), pages 49-82.
  9. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2012. "Debt dilution and sovereign default risk," Working Paper 10-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  10. Marcel Fafchamps, . "Sovereign Debt, Structural Adjustment and Conditionality," Working Papers 96015, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  11. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Introduction to "Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System"," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 1-36 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Martinez, Jose Vicente & Sandleris, Guido, 2011. "Is it punishment? Sovereign defaults and the decline in trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 909-930, October.
  13. Alfaro, Laura & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2005. "Sovereign debt as a contingent claim: a quantitative approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 297-314, March.
  14. Giancarlo Corsetti & Bernardo Guimaraes & Nouriel Roubini, 2003. "International Lending of Last Resort and Moral Hazard: A Model of IMF's Catalytic Finance," NBER Working Papers 10125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number sach89-1, October.
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