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Easter IslandÕs Collapse : A Tale of a Population Race

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Author Info
David, DE LA CROIX (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Department of Economics)
Davide, DOTTORI

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Abstract

The Easter Island tragedy has become an allegory for ecological catastrophe and a warning for the future. In the economic literature the collapse is usually attributed to irrational or myopic behaviors in the context of a fragile ecosystem. In this paper we propose an alternative story involving non-cooperative bargaining between clans to share the crop. Each clanÕs bargaining power depends on its threat level when fighting a war. The biggest group has the highest probability of winning. A clanÕs fertility is determined ex ante by each group. In the quest for greater bargaining power, each clanÕs optimal size depends on that of the other clan, and a population race follows. This race may exhaust the natural resources and lead to the ultimate collapse of the society. In addition to well-known natural factors, the likelihood of a collapse turns out to be greater when the cost of war is low, the probability of succeeding in war is highly responsive to the number of fighters, and the marginal return to labor is not too low. We analyze whether these factors can account for the difference between Easter and Tikopia Islands. The paper also makes a methodological contribution in that it is the first fertility model to include strategic complementarities between groupsÕ fertility decisions

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques in its series Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) with number 2007005.

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Length: 36
Date of creation: 15 Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvec:2007005

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Related research
Keywords: Fertility; War; Bargaining Power; Collapse; Natural Resources;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
O13 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
J52 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Dispute Resolution: Strikes, Arbitration, and Mediation

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    Other versions:
  2. Pezzey, John C. V. & Anderies, John M., 2003. "The effect of subsistence on collapse and institutional adaptation in population-resource societies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 299-320, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
    • John W. Maxwell & Rafael Reuveny, 2004. "Continuing Conflict," Working Papers 2004-27, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy. [Downloadable!]
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