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Growth on a Finite Planet: Resources, Technology and Population in the Long Run

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  • Pietro Peretto
  • Simone Valente

Abstract

We study the interactions between technological change, resource scarcity and population dynamics in a Schumpeterian model with endogenous fertility. There exists a pseudo-Malthusian equilibrium in which population is constant and income grows exponentially: the equilibrium population level is determined by resource scarcity but is independent of technology. The stability properties are driven by (i) the income reaction to increased resource scarcity and (ii) the fertility response to income dynamics. If labor and resources are substitutes in production, income and fertility dynamics are self-balancing and the pseudo-Malthusian equilibrium is the global attractor of the system. If labor and resources are complements, income and fertility dynamics are self-reinforcing and drive the economy towards either demographic explosion or human extinction. Introducing a minimum resource requirement, we obtain a second steady state implying constant population even under complementarity. The standard result of exponential population growth appears as a rather special case of our model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Duke University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 11-12.

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Length: 37
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:11-12

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Postal: Department of Economics Duke University 213 Social Sciences Building Box 90097 Durham, NC 27708-0097
Phone: (919) 660-1800
Fax: (919) 684-8974
Web page: http://econ.duke.edu/

Related research

Keywords: Endogenous Innovation; Resource Scarcity; Population Growth; Fertility Choices;

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Cited by:
  1. Halvor Mehlum & Ragnar Torvik & Simone Valente, 2013. "China's Savings Multiplier," Working Paper Series 14713, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
  2. Attar, M. Aykut, 2013. "Growth and Demography in Turkey: Economic History vs. Pro-Natalist Rhetoric," MPRA Paper 47275, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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