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Can geography lock a society in stagnation?

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  • DAO, Nguyen-Thang

    ()
    (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium; Vietnam Centre for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR), Hanoi, Vietnam)

  • DAVILA, Julio

    ()
    (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium)

Abstract

Yes. By using real-time structure break monitoring techniques we find evidence against monotonic response pattern, specifically three response structures of US stock market to the federal monetary policy actions based on a sample from 1989-2010. We re-estimate the market response in each of the three structures and find results stronger than previously documented especially in 2001-2008. We propose a “FedGap” variable which measures the deviation of Fed policy from the “Taylor Rule” in explanation and find it to be significant with economic meaning. We conclude that market responses proportionally to the size of the FedGap and it thus serves as a new “macro-state” factor which can explain the dynamic response patterns of financial markets. We also examine the issue from the bond market, and find similar results.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2013030.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2013030

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Related research

Keywords: real-time structure breaks; dynamic market response; monetary policy; Taylor Rule; FedGap;

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  1. DE LA CROIX, David & DOTTORI, Davide, 2007. "Easter Island’s collapse: A tale of a population race," CORE Discussion Papers 2007001, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Fleurbaey,Marc & Maniquet,François, 2011. "A Theory of Fairness and Social Welfare," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521887427, October.
  3. Galor, Oded & Moav, Omer, 2001. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 2727, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Mariani, Fabio & Pérez-Barahona, Agustín & Raffin, Natacha, 2009. "Life Expectancy and the Environment," IZA Discussion Papers 4564, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. David de la Croix & Axel Gosseries, 2011. "The Natalist Bias of Pollution Control," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2011020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  6. Aiyar, Shekhar & Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Moav, Omer, 2006. "Technological Progress and Regress in Pre-Industrial Times," CEPR Discussion Papers 5454, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
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Cited by:
  1. DI SUMMA, Marco, 2013. "The convex hull of the all-different system with the inclusion property: a simple proof," CORE Discussion Papers 2013069, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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