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Can federal reserve policy deviation explain response patterns of financial markets over time?

Author

Listed:
  • WANG, Kent

    (The Wangyanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, China)

  • WANG, Shin-Huei

    (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium)

  • PAN, Zheyao

    (The Wangyanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, China)

Abstract

Yes. By using real-time structure break monitoring techniques we find evidence against monotonic response pattern, specifically three response structures of US stock market to the federal monetary policy actions based on a sample from 1989-2010. We re-estimate the market response in each of the three structures and find results stronger than previously documented especially in 2001-2008. We propose a “FedGap” variable which measures the deviation of Fed policy from the “Taylor Rule” in explanation and find it to be significant with economic meaning. We conclude that market responses proportionally to the size of the FedGap and it thus serves as a new “macro-state” factor which can explain the dynamic response patterns of financial markets. We also examine the issue from the bond market, and find similar results.

Suggested Citation

  • WANG, Kent & WANG, Shin-Huei & PAN, Zheyao, 2013. "Can federal reserve policy deviation explain response patterns of financial markets over time?," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2013029, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2013029
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. RUSSO, Federica & MOUCHART, Michel & WUNSCH, Guillaume, 2013. "Confounding and control in a multivariate system. An issue in causal attribution," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2013068, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    2. Cristina Pardo-Garcia & Jose Sempere-Monerris, 2015. "Equilibrium mergers in a composite good industry with efficiencies," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 101-127, March.
    3. Chiara Canta & Marie-Louise Leroux, 2016. "Public and Private Hospitals, Congestion, and Redistribution," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 18(1), pages 42-66, February.
    4. MLINAR, Tanja B. & CHEVALIER, Philippe, 2013. "Pooling in manufacturing: do opposites attract?," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2013040, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real-time structure breaks; dynamic market response; monetary policy; Taylor Rule; FedGap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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