The Exchange Rate Effect of Multi-Currency Risk Arbitrage
AbstractThis paper documents how currency speculators trade when international capital flows generate predictable exchange rate movements. The redefinition of the MSCI world equity index in December 2000 provides an ideal natural experiment identifying exogenous capital flows of index tracking equity funds. Currency speculators are shown to front-run international capital flows. Furthermore, they actively manage the portfolio risk of their speculative positions through hedging positions in correlated currencies. The exchange rate effect of separate risk hedging is economically significant and amounts to a return difference of 3.6 percent over a 5 day event window between currencies with high and low risk hedging value. The results of the classical event study analysis are confirmed by a new and more powerful spectral inference isolating the high frequency cospectrum of currency pairs. The evidence supports the idea that international currency arbitrage is limited by the speculators' risk aversion.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7348.
Date of creation: Jun 2009
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-07-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-07-11 (Central Banking)
- NEP-IFN-2009-07-11 (International Finance)
- NEP-OPM-2009-07-11 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
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