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Capital flows and sovereign debt markets: Evidence from index rebalancings

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  • Pandolfi, Lorenzo
  • Williams, Tomas

Abstract

We analyze how capital flows into the sovereign debt market affect government bond prices, liquidity, and exchange rates. To address endogeneity concerns, we construct a measure of informationless capital Flows Implied by (mechanical) Rebalancings (FIR) in the largest emerging markets local currency government debt index. FIR is associated with higher returns and greater depth in the sovereign debt market after the rebalancings. Also, larger inflows (outflows) are associated with greater currency appreciations (depreciations). Our results highlight the increasing importance of capital flows driven by demand shocks, due to the growing relevance of benchmark indexes as the preferred habitat for institutional investors.

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  • Pandolfi, Lorenzo & Williams, Tomas, 2019. "Capital flows and sovereign debt markets: Evidence from index rebalancings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 384-403.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:132:y:2019:i:2:p:384-403
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.10.008
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiang, Hao & Vayanos, Dimitri & Zheng, Lu, 2020. "Tracking biased weights: asset pricing implications of value-weighted indexing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118847, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Tomas Williams, 2019. "Winners and losers from Sovereign debt inflows: evidence from the stock market," Economics Working Papers 1693, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    3. Mariana Escobar & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Alvaro Pedraza & Tomas Williams, 2021. "The Anatomy of Index Rebalancings: Evidence from Transaction Data," CSEF Working Papers 621, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 12 2021.
    4. Calomiris, Charles W. & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomas, 2022. "Large international corporate bonds: Investor behavior and firm responses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Calomiris,Charles W. & Larrain,Mauricio & Schmukler,Sergio L. & Williams,Tomas, 2019. "Search for Yield in Large International Corporate Bonds : Investor Behavior and Firm Responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8890, The World Bank.
    6. De Rossi, Giuliano & Steliaros, Michael, 2022. "The Shift from Active to Passive and its Effect on Intraday Stock Dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    7. Lucas Argentieri Mariani & Silvia Marchesi, 2023. "International Lending Channel, Bank Heterogeneity and Capital Inflows (Mis)Allocation," Working Papers 523, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    8. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66, december.
    9. Antonelli, Stefano & Corneli, Flavia & Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2022. "Benchmark effects from the inclusion of Chinese A-shares in the MSCI EM index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    10. Bathia, Deven & Bouras, Christos & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Cross-border capital flows and return dynamics in emerging stock markets: Relative roles of equity and debt flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Matteo Maggiori, 2021. "FX policy when financial markets are imperfect," BIS Working Papers 942, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Broner, Fernando & Martin, Alberto & Pandolfi, Lorenzo & Williams, Tomas, 2021. "Winners and losers from sovereign debt inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    13. Maggiori, Matteo, 2021. "International Macroeconomics With Imperfect Financial Markets," SocArXiv z8g6r, Center for Open Science.
    14. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Beltrán, Paula & Grinberg, Federico & Mancini-Griffoli, Tommaso, 2023. "The macro-financial effects of international bank lending on emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    15. Hillary Stein, 2022. "Got Milk? The Effect of Export Price Shocks on Exchange Rates," Working Papers 23-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    16. Bayront Yudit Rumondor & Pakasa Bary, 2020. "Capital Flows and Bank Risk-Taking Behavior: Evidence From Indonesia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 33-53.
    17. Masahiro Inoguchi, 2021. "The impact of foreign capital flows on long‐term interest rates in emerging and advanced economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 268-295, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign debt; International capital flows; Index rebalancings; Mutual funds; Benchmark indexes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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