IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bge/wpaper/1152.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Winners and Losers from Sovereign Debt Inflows: Evidence from the Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Broner
  • Alberto Martín
  • Lorenzo Pandolfi
  • Tomás Williams

Abstract

We study the effects of sovereign debt inflows on domestic firms. To do so, we exploit episodes of large sovereign debt inflows, which follow the announcements of the inclusion of six emerging countries into major sovereign debt indexes. We find that these events reduce government bond yields, appreciate the domestic currency, and have heterogeneous stock-market effects on domestic firms. Firms operating in tradable industries experience lower returns than firms in non-tradable industries. In addition, financial firms, government-related firms, and firms that rely more on external financing experience higher returns. The effect on financial and government-related firms is stronger in countries that display larger reductions in government bond yields. The effect on tradable firms is stronger in countries that display stronger appreciations. We provide a stylized model that rationalizes these results. Our findings shed novel light on the channels through which sovereign debt inflows affect firms in emerging countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Broner & Alberto Martín & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Tomás Williams, 2020. "Winners and Losers from Sovereign Debt Inflows: Evidence from the Stock Market," Working Papers 1152, Barcelona School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1152
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.barcelonagse.eu/sites/default/files/working_paper_pdfs/1152_0.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pandolfi, Lorenzo & Williams, Tomas, 2019. "Capital flows and sovereign debt markets: Evidence from index rebalancings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 384-403.
    2. Tomas Williams, 2018. "Capital Inflows, Sovereign Debt and Bank Lending: Micro-Evidence from an Emerging Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(12), pages 4958-4994.
    3. Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2011. "Sovereign Default Risk and Bank Fragility in Financially Integrated Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 162-194, June.
    4. Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Mr. Takahiro Tsuda, 2014. "Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt," IMF Working Papers 2014/039, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Philip R. Lane & Peter McQuade, 2014. "Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 218-252, January.
    6. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Bryan Hardy & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Vivian Yue, 2016. "Sovereign Risk and Bank Lending: Evidence from 1999 Turkish Earthquake," NBER Working Papers 22335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    8. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Stefan Nagel & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2018. "ECB Policies Involving Government Bond Purchases: Impact and Channels [The “greatest” carry trade ever? Understanding eurozone bank risks]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 1-44.
    9. Broner, Fernando & Erce, Aitor & Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2014. "Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 114-142.
    10. Gennaioli, Nicola & Martin, Alberto & Rossi, Stefano, 2018. "Banks, government Bonds, and Default: What do the data Say?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 98-113.
    11. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2014. "Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, And Global Imbalances," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(5), pages 1240-1284, October.
    12. Carlo Altavilla & Marco Pagano & Saverio Simonelli, 2017. "Bank Exposures and Sovereign Stress Transmission," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(6), pages 2103-2139.
    13. Baskaya, Yusuf Soner & di Giovanni, Julian & Kalemli-Özcan, Şebnem & Peydro, José-Luis & Ulu, Mehmet Fatih, 2017. "Capital flows and the international credit channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 15-22.
    14. Benigno, Gianluca & Converse, Nathan & Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 60-87.
    15. Benjamin Hébert & Jesse Schreger, 2017. "The Costs of Sovereign Default: Evidence from Argentina," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3119-3145, October.
    16. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2015. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1369-1420.
    17. Cremers, Martijn & Ferreira, Miguel A. & Matos, Pedro & Starks, Laura, 2016. "Indexing and active fund management: International evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 539-560.
    18. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Martin & Stefano Rossi, 2014. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks, and Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 819-866, April.
    19. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    20. Steven Ongena & Alexander Popov & Neeltje Van Horen, 2019. "The Invisible Hand of the Government: Moral Suasion during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 346-379, October.
    21. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomás, 2017. "International asset allocations and capital flows: The benchmark effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 413-430.
    22. Diego J. Perez, 2015. "Sovereign Debt, Domestic Banks and the Provision of Public Liquidity," Discussion Papers 15-016, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    23. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2014. "What Explains the 2007–2009 Drop in Employment?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2197-2223, November.
    24. Chari, Anusha & Blair Henry, Peter, 2008. "Firm-specific information and the efficiency of investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 636-655, March.
    25. Robert F. Dittmar, 2008. "Do Sovereign Bonds Benefit Corporate Bonds in Emerging Markets?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(5), pages 1983-2014, September.
    26. David Kohn, 2015. "Addicted to Debt: Foreign Purchases of U.S. Treasuries and the Term-Premium," Department of Economics Working Papers 2015_1, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    27. Cakici, Nusret & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Tan, Sinan, 2013. "Size, value, and momentum in emerging market stock returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 46-65.
    28. Sandro C. Andrade & Vidhi Chhaochharia, 2018. "The Costs of Sovereign Default: Evidence from the Stock Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(5), pages 1707-1751.
    29. Anusha Chari & Ryan Leary & Toan Phan, 2017. "The Costs of (sub)Sovereign Default Risk: Evidence from Puerto Rico," NBER Working Papers 24108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Alfaro, Laura & Chari, Anusha & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2017. "The real effects of capital controls: Firm-level evidence from a policy experiment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 191-210.
    31. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "Price Pressure in the Government Bond Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 585-590, May.
    32. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    33. Olivier Blanchard & Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2017. "Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(3), pages 563-585, August.
    34. Mauricio Larrain, 2015. "Editor's Choice Capital Account Opening and Wage Inequality," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(6), pages 1555-1587.
    35. Philipp Schnabl, 2012. "The International Transmission of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 897-932, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maggiori, Matteo, 2021. "International Macroeconomics With Imperfect Financial Markets," SocArXiv z8g6r, Center for Open Science.
    2. Hillary Stein, 2022. "Got Milk? The Effect of Export Price Shocks on Exchange Rates," Working Papers 23-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro & Martin Wolf, 2019. "The global financial resource curse," Economics Working Papers 1803, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2023.
    4. Matteo Maggiori, 2021. "FX policy when financial markets are imperfect," BIS Working Papers 942, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Marcus Hagedorn, 2021. "An Equilibrium Theory of Nominal Exchange Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 9290, CESifo.
    6. Lucas A. Mariani & Silvia Marchesi, 2023. "International Lending Channel, Bank Heterogeneity and Capital Inflows (Mis)Allocation," Working Papers 887, Economic Research Southern Africa.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Broner, Fernando & Martin, Alberto & Pandolfi, Lorenzo & Williams, Tomas, 2021. "Winners and losers from sovereign debt inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Tomas Williams, 2018. "Capital Inflows, Sovereign Debt and Bank Lending: Micro-Evidence from an Emerging Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(12), pages 4958-4994.
    3. Pandolfi, Lorenzo & Williams, Tomas, 2019. "Capital flows and sovereign debt markets: Evidence from index rebalancings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 384-403.
    4. Lucas Argentieri Mariani & Silvia Marchesi, 2023. "International Lending Channel, Bank Heterogeneity and Capital Inflows (Mis)Allocation," Working Papers 523, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    5. Bottero, Margherita & Lenzu, Simone & Mezzanotti, Filippo, 2020. "Sovereign debt exposure and the bank lending channel: Impact on credit supply and the real economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Anil Ari, 2015. "Sovereign Risk and Bank Risk-Taking," Working Papers 202, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    7. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Koulischer, François & Nguyen, Benoît & Yogo, Motohiro, 2021. "Inspecting the mechanism of quantitative easing in the euro area," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 1-20.
    8. Crosignani, Matteo & Faria-e-Castro, Miguel & Fonseca, Luís, 2020. "The (Unintended?) consequences of the largest liquidity injection ever," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 97-112.
    9. Bomprezzi, Pietro & Marchesi, Silvia, 2023. "A firm level approach on the effects of IMF programs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. Mr. Tamon Asonuma & Mr. Marcos d Chamon & Aitor Erce & Akira Sasahara, 2019. "Costs of Sovereign Defaults: Restructuring Strategies, Bank Distress and the Capital Inflow-Credit Channel," IMF Working Papers 2019/069, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Ari, Anil, 2018. "Gambling traps," Working Paper Series 2217, European Central Bank.
    12. Matteo Crosignani, 2015. "Why Are Banks Not Recapitalized During Crises?," Working Papers 203, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    13. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66, december.
    15. Kirschenmann, Karolin & Korte, Josef & Steffen, Sascha, 2020. "A zero-risk weight channel of sovereign risk spillovers," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    16. Spyros Alogoskoufis & Sam Langfield, 2020. "Regulating the Doom Loop," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(4), pages 251-292, September.
    17. Neyer, Ulrike & Sterzel, André, 2017. "Capital requirements for government bonds: Implications for bank behaviour and financial stability," DICE Discussion Papers 275, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    18. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Johann Scharler, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the Sovereign-Bank Nexus," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(3), pages 337-383, September.
    19. Corbisiero, Giuseppe, 2022. "Bank lending, collateral, and credit traps in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    20. Ricardo Reis, 2016. "QE in the future: the central bank's balance sheet in a financial crisis," Discussion Papers 1620, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign debt; capital inflows; exchange rate; government yields; stock prices; emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1152. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bruno Guallar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bargses.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.