IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v7y2019i9p832-d265515.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Properties of Foreign Exchange Complex Network

Author

Listed:
  • Xin Yang

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Mathematical Modeling and Analysis in Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China)

  • Shigang Wen

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Mathematical Modeling and Analysis in Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China)

  • Zhifeng Liu

    (School of Management, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China)

  • Cai Li

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Mathematical Modeling and Analysis in Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China)

  • Chuangxia Huang

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Mathematical Modeling and Analysis in Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China)

Abstract

The foreign exchange (FX) market, one of the important components of the financial market, is a typical complex system. In this paper, by resorting to the complex network method, we use the daily closing prices of 41 FX markets to build the dynamical networks and their minimum spanning tree (MST) maps by virtue of a moving window correlation coefficient. The properties of FX networks are characterized by the normalized tree length, node degree distributions, centrality measures and edge survival ratios. Empirical results show that: (i) the normalized tree length plays a role in identifying crises and is negatively correlated with the market return and volatility; (ii) 83% of FX networks follow power-law node degree distribution, which means that the FX market is a typical heterogeneous market, and a few hub nodes play key roles in the market; (iii) the highest centrality measures reveal that the USD, EUR and CNY are the three most powerful currencies in FX markets; and (iv) the edge survival ratio analysis implies that the FX structure is relatively stable.

Suggested Citation

  • Xin Yang & Shigang Wen & Zhifeng Liu & Cai Li & Chuangxia Huang, 2019. "Dynamic Properties of Foreign Exchange Complex Network," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-19, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:7:y:2019:i:9:p:832-:d:265515
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/7/9/832/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/7/9/832/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Humala & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2013. "Some stylized facts of return in the foreign exchange and stock markets in Peru," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(2), pages 139-158, May.
    2. Huang, Wei-Qiang & Yao, Shuang & Zhuang, Xin-Tian & Yuan, Ying, 2017. "Dynamic asset trees in the US stock market: Structure variation and market phenomena," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 44-53.
    3. Chao Song & Shumin Fei & Jinde Cao & Chuangxia Huang, 2019. "Robust Synchronization of Fractional-Order Uncertain Chaotic Systems Based on Output Feedback Sliding Mode Control," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(7), pages 1-10, July.
    4. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2002. "External wealth, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1049-1071, June.
    5. Guangyou Zhou & Xiaoxuan Yan & Sumei Luo, 2018. "Financial Security and Optimal Scale of Foreign Exchange Reserve in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-19, May.
    6. Gang-Jin Wang & Chi Xie & Peng Zhang & Feng Han & Shou Chen, 2014. "Dynamics of Foreign Exchange Networks: A Time-Varying Copula Approach," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-11, May.
    7. R. Mantegna, 1999. "Hierarchical structure in financial markets," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 11(1), pages 193-197, September.
    8. Chuangxia Huang & Jie Cao & Fenghua Wen & Xiaoguang Yang, 2016. "Stability Analysis of SIR Model with Distributed Delay on Complex Networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-22, August.
    9. Cao, Guangxi & Zhang, Qi & Li, Qingchen, 2017. "Causal relationship between the global foreign exchange market based on complex networks and entropy theory," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 36-44.
    10. Samuel W. Malone & Robert B. Gramacy & Enrique Ter Horst, 2016. "Timing Foreign Exchange Markets," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, March.
    11. István Mák & Judit Páles, 2009. "The role of the FX swap market in the Hungarian financial system," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 4(1), pages 24-34, May.
    12. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 467-509, June.
    13. Moustafa Abuelfadl, 2017. "Individual Foreign Exchange Investors, Return Predictability And Market Timing," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(01), pages 1-28, March.
    14. Keskin, Mustafa & Deviren, Bayram & Kocakaplan, Yusuf, 2011. "Topology of the correlation networks among major currencies using hierarchical structure methods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(4), pages 719-730.
    15. Jiang, J. & Ma, K. & Cai, X., 2007. "Scaling and correlations in foreign exchange market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 375(1), pages 274-280.
    16. Jang, Wooseok & Lee, Junghoon & Chang, Woojin, 2011. "Currency crises and the evolution of foreign exchange market: Evidence from minimum spanning tree," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(4), pages 707-718.
    17. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Information Flows in Foreign Exchange Markets: Dissecting Customer Currency Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 601-634, April.
    18. Robert T. Daigler & Ann Marie Hibbert & Ivelina Pavlova, 2014. "Examining the Return–Volatility Relation for Foreign Exchange: Evidence from the Euro VIX," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 74-92, January.
    19. Mai, Yong & Chen, Huan & Zou, Jun-Zhong & Li, Sai-Ping, 2018. "Currency co-movement and network correlation structure of foreign exchange market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 65-74.
    20. Hau, Harald, 2014. "The exchange rate effect of multi-currency risk arbitrage," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 304-331.
    21. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    22. Onnela, J.-P. & Chakraborti, A. & Kaski, K. & Kertész, J., 2003. "Dynamic asset trees and Black Monday," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 247-252.
    23. Daniel J. Fenn & Mason A. Porter & Peter J. Mucha & Mark McDonald & Stacy Williams & Neil F. Johnson & Nick S. Jones, 2012. "Dynamical clustering of exchange rates," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 1493-1520, October.
    24. Peter Flaschel & Florian Hartmann & Christopher Malikane & Christian Proaño, 2015. "A Behavioral Macroeconomic Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations with Complex Market Expectations Formation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 669-691, April.
    25. Jaroslaw Kwapien & Sylwia Gworek & Stanislaw Drozdz, 2009. "Structure and evolution of the foreign exchange networks," Papers 0901.4793, arXiv.org.
    26. Zhou, Bin, 1996. "High-Frequency Data and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 45-52, January.
    27. Rob Hayward, 2018. "Foreign Exchange Speculation: An Event Study," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13, February.
    28. McGroarty, Frank & ap Gwilym, Owain & Thomas, Stephen, 2009. "The role of private information in return volatility, bid-ask spreads and price levels in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 387-401, April.
    29. Charlotte, Christiansen, 2011. "Intertemporal risk-return trade-off in foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 535-549, October.
    30. Chao Yang & Lihong Huang & Fangmin Li, 2018. "Exponential Synchronization Control of Discontinuous Nonautonomous Networks and Autonomous Coupled Networks," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-10, October.
    31. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi & Han, Feng & Sun, Bo, 2012. "Similarity measure and topology evolution of foreign exchange markets using dynamic time warping method: Evidence from minimal spanning tree," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(16), pages 4136-4146.
    32. Antonie Kotzé & Rudolf Oosthuizen & Edson Pindza, 2015. "Implied and Local Volatility Surfaces for South African Index and Foreign Exchange Options," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-40, January.
    33. Maximilian Holtgrave & Mert Onay, 2017. "Success through Trust, Control, and Learning? Contrasting the Drivers of SME Performance between Different Modes of Foreign Market Entry," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-24, May.
    34. Daniel J. Fenn & Mason A. Porter & Mark McDonald & Stacy Williams & Neil F. Johnson & Nick S. Jones, 2008. "Dynamic communities in multichannel data: An application to the foreign exchange market during the 2007--2008 credit crisis," Papers 0811.3988, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2009.
    35. Mizuno, Takayuki & Takayasu, Hideki & Takayasu, Misako, 2006. "Correlation networks among currencies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 364(C), pages 336-342.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhifeng Dai & Jie Kang, 2022. "Some new efficient mean–variance portfolio selection models," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4784-4796, October.
    2. Yang, Ming-Yuan & Wu, Zhen-Guo & Wu, Xin, 2022. "An empirical study of risk diffusion in the cryptocurrency market based on the network analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    3. Huang, Chuangxia & Zhao, Xian & Deng, Yunke & Yang, Xiaoguang & Yang, Xin, 2022. "Evaluating influential nodes for the Chinese energy stocks based on jump volatility spillover network," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 81-94.
    4. Ioannis N. Kallianiotis, 2022. "Trade Balance and Exchange Rate: The J-Curve," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(2), pages 1-3.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gautier Marti & Frank Nielsen & Miko{l}aj Bi'nkowski & Philippe Donnat, 2017. "A review of two decades of correlations, hierarchies, networks and clustering in financial markets," Papers 1703.00485, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    2. Yang, Xin & Wen, Shigang & Zhao, Xian & Huang, Chuangxia, 2020. "Systemic importance of financial institutions: A complex network perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    3. Mansooreh Kazemilari & Ali Mohamadi, 2018. "Topological Network Analysis Based on Dissimilarity Measure of Multivariate Time Series Evolution in the Subprime Crisis," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-16, May.
    4. Kazemilari, Mansooreh & Djauhari, Maman Abdurachman, 2015. "Correlation network analysis for multi-dimensional data in stocks market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 62-75.
    5. Katerina Rigana & Ernst-Jan Camiel Wit & Samantha Cook, 2021. "Using Network-based Causal Inference to Detect the Sources of Contagion in the Currency Market," Papers 2112.13127, arXiv.org.
    6. Dias, João, 2012. "Sovereign debt crisis in the European Union: A minimum spanning tree approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(5), pages 2046-2055.
    7. Mansooreh Kazemilari & Maman Abdurachman Djauhari & Zuhaimy Ismail, 2016. "Foreign Exchange Market Performance: Evidence from Bivariate Time Series Approach," Papers 1608.07694, arXiv.org.
    8. Basnarkov, Lasko & Stojkoski, Viktor & Utkovski, Zoran & Kocarev, Ljupco, 2019. "Correlation patterns in foreign exchange markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 1026-1037.
    9. Kazemilari, Mansooreh & Mardani, Abbas & Streimikiene, Dalia & Zavadskas, Edmundas Kazimieras, 2017. "An overview of renewable energy companies in stock exchange: Evidence from minimal spanning tree approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(PA), pages 107-117.
    10. Zhang, Ditian & Zhuang, Yangyang & Tang, Pan & Han, Qingying, 2022. "The evolution of foreign exchange market: A network view," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 608(P2).
    11. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi & Han, Feng & Sun, Bo, 2012. "Similarity measure and topology evolution of foreign exchange markets using dynamic time warping method: Evidence from minimal spanning tree," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(16), pages 4136-4146.
    12. Paulus, Michal & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2015. "Worldwide clustering of the corruption perception," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 428(C), pages 351-358.
    13. Djauhari, Maman Abdurachman & Gan, Siew Lee, 2015. "Optimality problem of network topology in stocks market analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 108-114.
    14. Sandoval, Leonidas, 2014. "To lag or not to lag? How to compare indices of stock markets that operate on different times," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 403(C), pages 227-243.
    15. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi, 2013. "Cross-correlations between Renminbi and four major currencies in the Renminbi currency basket," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(6), pages 1418-1428.
    16. He, Fang & Chen, Xi, 2016. "Credit networks and systemic risk of Chinese local financing platforms: Too central or too big to fail?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 461(C), pages 158-170.
    17. Lee, Junghoon & Youn, Janghyuk & Chang, Woojin, 2012. "Intraday volatility and network topological properties in the Korean stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1354-1360.
    18. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2012. "Correlations between biofuels and related commodities before and during the food crisis: A taxonomy perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1380-1391.
    19. Basnarkov, Lasko & Stojkoski, Viktor & Utkovski, Zoran & Kocarev, Ljupco, 2020. "Lead–lag relationships in foreign exchange markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
    20. Wang, Dan & Huang, Wei-Qiang, 2021. "Centrality-based measures of financial institutions’ systemic importance: A tail dependence network view," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 562(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:7:y:2019:i:9:p:832-:d:265515. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.