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Modeling and forecasting exchange rate volatility in time-frequency domain

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  • Jozef Barunik
  • Lukas Vacha

Abstract

This paper investigates how the forecasts of volatility vary with different high frequency measures. In addition, using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH combined with time-frequency decomposed volatility, we attempt to study the influence of intra-day investment horizons on daily volatility forecasts. The decomposition of volatility into several investment horizons and jumps is possible due to a recently proposed jump wavelet two scale realized volatility estimator (JWTSRV). On exchange rate futures data covering the recent financial crisis, we moreover compare forecasts using several additional realized volatility measures. Our results show that inclusion of jumps and realized measures robust to noise improves forecasting ability of the model considerably. Thus for a forecaster, it is crucial to use proper high frequency measure. An interesting insight into the volatility process is also provided by its decomposition. We find that most of the information for future volatility comes from high frequency part of the spectra representing very short investment horizons.

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1204.1452
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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1204.1452.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
Date of revision: Aug 2013
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1204.1452

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  1. Lan Zhang & Per A. Mykland & Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 2003. "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility with Noisy High Frequency Data," NBER Working Papers 10111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
  3. Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
  4. Ramazan Gencay & Nikola Gradojevic & Faruk Selcuk & Brandon Whitcher, 2009. "Asymmetry of Information Flow Between Volatilities Across Time Scales," Working Paper Series, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis 27_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2009.
  5. Jozef Barunik & Lukas Vacha, 2012. "Realized wavelet-based estimation of integrated variance and jumps in the presence of noise," Papers 1202.1854, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2013.
  6. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
  7. Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Frederiksen, Per, 2008. "Finite sample accuracy and choice of sampling frequency in integrated volatility estimation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 265-286, March.
  8. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Zhuo (Albert) Huang & Howard Howan Shek, . "Realized GARCH: A Complete Model of Returns and Realized Measures of Volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2010-13, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  9. Fleming, Jeff & Paye, Bradley S., 2011. "High-frequency returns, jumps and the mixture of normals hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 119-128, January.
  10. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Xin Huang, 2007. "A Reduced Form Framework for Modeling Volatility of Speculative Prices based on Realized Variation Measures," CREATES Research Papers 2007-14, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  11. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 1-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Lanne, Markku, 2007. "Forecasting realized exchange rate volatility by decomposition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 307-320.
  13. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
  14. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
  15. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Jozef Barunik & Michaela Barunikova, 2012. "Revisiting the fractional cointegrating dynamics of implied-realized volatility relation with wavelet band spectrum regression," Papers 1208.4831, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2013.

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