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A multi-horizon scale for volatility

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  • Alexander Subbotin

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Higher School of Economics - State University)

Abstract

We decompose volatility of a stock market index both in time and scale using wavelet filters and design a probabilistic indicator for valatilities, analogous to the Richter scale in geophysics. The peak-over-threshold method is used to fit the generalized Pareto probability distribution for the extreme values in the realized variances of wavelet coefficients. The indicator is computed for the daily Dow Jones Industrial Averages index data from 1986 to 2007 and for the intraday CAC 40 data from 1995 to 2006. The results are used for comparison and structural multi-resolution analysis of extreme events on the stock market and for the detection of financial crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Subbotin, 2008. "A multi-horizon scale for volatility," Post-Print halshs-00261514, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00261514
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00261514
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. T. Bisig & A. Dupuis & V. Impagliazzo & R. B. Olsen, 2012. "The scale of market quakes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 501-508, July.
    2. Jozef Barunik & Lukas Vacha, 2015. "Realized wavelet-based estimation of integrated variance and jumps in the presence of noise," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 1347-1364, August.
    3. Alexander Subbotin & Thierry Chauveau & Kateryna Shapovalova, 2009. "Volatility Models: from GARCH to Multi-Horizon Cascades," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00390636, HAL.
    4. Barunik, Jozef & Krehlik, Tomas & Vacha, Lukas, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting exchange rate volatility in time-frequency domain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(1), pages 329-340.
    5. Wang, Fangfang, 2014. "Optimal design of Fourier estimator in the presence of microstructure noise," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 708-722.
    6. Takaki Hayashi & Yuta Koike, 2017. "Multi-scale analysis of lead-lag relationships in high-frequency financial markets," Papers 1708.03992, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    7. Fangfang Wang, 2016. "An Unbiased Measure of Integrated Volatility in the Frequency Domain," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 147-164, March.
    8. Subbotin, Alexandre, 2009. "Volatility Models: from Conditional Heteroscedasticity to Cascades at Multiple Horizons," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 15(3), pages 94-138.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market; volatility; wavelets; multi-resolution analysis; financial crisis.; financial crisis; Marché d'actions; volatilité; ondelettes; analyse multirésolution; crises financières.;
    All these keywords.

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