Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Food price volatility in developing countries and its determinants

Contents:

Author Info

  • Kornher, Lukas
  • Kalkuhl, Matthias

Abstract

The work at hand contributes to the ongoing discussion on the drivers of food price volatility. Based on theoretical considerations, economical, agricultural, and political determinants of domestic price volatility are identified and discussed. A dynamic panel is estimated to account for country fixed effects and persistence of volatility. Two approaches are followed in order to consistently estimate the impact of time-invariant variables. First, system GMM using levels instead of first differences and, second, a two step IV estimation using the residuals from the system GMM estimation. Findings suggest that stocks, production, international price volatility, and governance significantly affect domestic price variability. Furthermore, improved functionality of markets and reduced transaction costs can stabilise prices. With respect to agricultural policies, public stockholding seems to be associated with less volatility, whereas trade restrictions do not enhance price stabilisation. Lastly, landlocked countries experience less variability in grain prices, while African countries have more volatile prices than countries on other continents.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/156132
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA) in its series 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 with number 156132.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ags:gewi13:156132

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Bundesallee 50, 38116 Braunschweig
Phone: 0531 / 596 5501
Fax: 0531 / 596 5599
Email:
Web page: http://www.gewisola.de/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Determinants of food price volatility; public buffer stock; competitive storage; system GMM; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399, October.
  2. Mason, Nicole M. & Myers, Robert J., 2011. "The Effects of the Food Reserve Agency on Maize Market Prices in Zambia," Food Security Collaborative Policy Briefs 120766, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  3. Félix Badolo, 2011. "Transmission des chocs de prix internationaux : le cas du riz au Burkina Faso," Working Papers halshs-00627189, HAL.
  4. Christopher B. Barrett & Jau Rong Li, 2002. "Distinguishing between Equilibrium and Integration in Spatial Price Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 292-307.
  5. Ianchovichina, Elena & Loening, Josef & Wood, Christina, 2012. "How vulnerable are Arab countries to global food price shocks ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6018, The World Bank.
  6. Ng, Serena, 1996. "Looking for evidence of speculative stockholding in commodity markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 123-143.
  7. Kripfganz, Sebastian & Schwarz, Claudia, 2013. "Estimation of Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models with Time-Invariant Regressors," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79756, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  8. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2005. "Income and Democracy," NBER Working Papers 11205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Lee , Hyun-Hoon & Park, Cyn-Young, 2013. "International Transmission of Food Prices and Volatilities: A Panel Analysis," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 373, Asian Development Bank.
  10. Wright, Brian D & Williams, Jeffrey C, 1982. "The Economic Role of Commodity Storage," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 596-614, September.
  11. Berna Karali & Gabriel J. Power, 2013. "Short- and Long-Run Determinants of Commodity Price Volatility," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(3), pages 724-738.
  12. Friederike Greb & Nelissa Jamora & Carolin Mengel & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel & Nadine Würriehausen, 2012. "Price transmission from international to domestic markets," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 125, Courant Research Centre PEG, revised 08 Oct 2012.
  13. Martin, Will & Anderson, Kym, 2011. "Export restrictions and price insulation during commodity price booms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5645, The World Bank.
  14. Getaw Tadesse & Atle G. Guttormsen, 2011. "The behavior of commodity prices in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(1), pages 87-97, 01.
  15. Robert F. Engle & Jose Gonzalo Rangel, 2008. "The Spline-GARCH Model for Low-Frequency Volatility and Its Global Macroeconomic Causes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1187-1222, May.
  16. Newbery, David M G & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1982. "Optimal Commodity Stock-piling Rules," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 403-27, November.
  17. Makki, Shiva S. & Tweeten, Luther G. & Miranda, Mario J., 2001. "Storage-trade interactions under uncertainty: Implications for food security," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 127-140, February.
  18. Roy Bailey and Marcus Chambers, . "A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations," Economics Discussion Papers 432, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  19. Gerald E. Shively, 1996. "Food Price Variability and Economic Reform: An ARCH Approach for Ghana," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(1), pages 126-136.
  20. Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989. "On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices," Papers 145, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  21. R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  22. Ruijs, Arjan & Schweigman, Caspar & Lutz, Clemens, 2004. "The impact of transport- and transaction-cost reductions on food markets in developing countries: evidence for tempered expectations for Burkina Faso," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(2-3), pages 219-228, December.
  23. Christopher Gilbert & Wyn Morgan, 2010. "Has food price volatility risen?," Department of Economics Working Papers 1002, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  24. Pietola, Kyösti & Liu, Xing & Robles, Miguel, 2010. "Price, inventories, and volatility in the global wheat market," IFPRI discussion papers 996, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  25. Sophie Mitra & Jean-Marc Boussard, 2011. "A Simple Model of Endogenous Agricultural Commodity Price Fluctuations with Storage," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2011-05, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
  26. Rashid, Shahidur & Lemma, Solomon, 2011. "Strategic grain reserves in Ethiopia: Institutional design and operational performance," IFPRI discussion papers 01054, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  27. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
  28. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Esther Duflo, 2007. "The Economic Lives of the Poor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 141-168, Winter.
  29. Albert Park, 2006. "Risk and Household Grain Management in Developing Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(514), pages 1088-1115, October.
  30. Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon, 2011. "Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility: An Overview," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 52, OECD Publishing.
  31. Brian D. Wright, 2011. "The Economics of Grain Price Volatility," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 32-58.
  32. Rashid, Shahidur & Cummings Jr., Ralph & Gulati, Ashok, 2007. "Grain Marketing Parastatals in Asia: Results from Six Case Studies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 1872-1888, November.
  33. Scheinkman, Jose A & Schechtman, Jack, 1983. "A Simple Competitive Model with Production and Storage," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 427-41, July.
  34. Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Tomek, William G., 2003. "How Much Of Commodity Price Behavior Can A Rational Expectations Storage Model Explain?," Staff Papers 30712, Kansas State University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
  35. Gouel, Christophe & Jean, Sebastien, 2012. "Optimal food price stabilization in a small open developing country," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5943, The World Bank.
  36. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & von Braun, Joachim, 2013. "Short-term global crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Discussion Papers 145308, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
  37. Trostle, Ronald, 2008. "Factors Contributing to Recent Increases in Food Commodity Prices (PowerPoint)," Seminars 43902, USDA Economists Group.
  38. Cafiero, Carlo & Bobenrieth H., Eugenio S.A. & Bobenrieth H., Juan R.A. & Wright, Brian D., 2011. "The empirical relevance of the competitive storage model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 44-54, May.
  39. Gabre-Madhin, Eleni Z., 2001. "Market institutions, transaction costs, and social capital in the Ethiopian grain market:," Research reports 124, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  40. Shiva S. Makki & Luther G. Tweeten & Mario J. Miranda, 1996. "Wheat Storage and Trade in an Efficient Global Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 879-890.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2014. "How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices in Developing Countries? A Global Price Transmission and Vulnerability Mapping Analysis," Discussion Papers 168591, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:gewi13:156132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.