Price transmission from international to domestic markets
AbstractThis study aims to improve our understanding of the extent and speed of the transmission of international cereal prices to local markets in developing countries. We analyse two samples of price transmission (PT) estimates, one extracted from a comprehensive literature sample of 31 published papers and studies on cereal price transmission and one containing of own estimates of cereal PT using the FAO’s GIEWS dataset. We also present the results of a non-parametric analysis of PT in which we analyse the share of periods in which domestic and international prices have jointly increased or decreased. We find a higher share of cointegrated commodity market pairs in the literature sample (79% compared to 43%). This may be due to publication bias. Cointegration is more prevalent for maize market pairs and less prevalent for rice market pairs. Both the literature and the GIEWS-based estimates point to average long-run PT coefficients of roughly 0.75 and average short-run adjustment parameters of roughly 0.09-0.11. In most cases domestic prices adjust to deviations from the long-run price relationship, but international prices do not. The only notable exception to this rule is rice, which suggests that the determination of international rice prices differs fundamentally from the determination of international wheat and maize prices. In a subsequent meta-regression analysis we measure how much of the variation in the samples of PT estimates can be explained by country- or product-specific factors. However, this analysis fails to generate compelling results. An analysis of domestic price volatility reveals that median volatility has increased since July 2007.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development in its series Discussion Papers with number 137101.
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Date of revision:
price transmission; cointegration; developing countries; agricultural trade; maize; rice; wheat; commodity prices; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; International Development; International Relations/Trade; C32 - Time-Series Models; Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade Q18 - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy;
Other versions of this item:
- Friederike Greb & Nelissa Jamora & Carolin Mengel & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel & Nadine Würriehausen, 2012. "Price transmission from international to domestic markets," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 125, Courant Research Centre PEG, revised 08 Oct 2012.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
- Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
- Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
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- Haile, Mekbib Gebretsadik & Kalkhul, Matthias, 2013. "Volatility in the international food markets: implications for global agricultural supply and for market and price policy," 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 156097, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
- Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Food price volatility in developing countries and its determinants," 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 156132, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
- Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2014. "How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices in Developing Countries? A Global Price Transmission and Vulnerability Mapping Analysis," Discussion Papers 168591, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
- Jamora, Nelissa & Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan von, 2012. "What world price?," Discussion Papers 142241, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
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