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Food Price Variability and Economic Reform: An ARCH Approach for Ghana

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  • Gerald E. Shively

Abstract

Changes in maize price levels and variability in Ghana are investigated. A model of wholesale price determination is reviewed in which grain stocks are held for speculative storage as well as export to neighboring countries in the Sahel. To test the model, an Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroskedastic (ARCH) regression is applied to monthly maize data for two markets over the period 1978–93. The regression is used to measure changes in maize price volatility in Ghana, and to infer the importance of past prices, domestic and regional production, and commodity storage and trade in explaining these changes. Copyright 1996, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its journal American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 78 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 126-136

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:78:y:1996:i:1:p:126-136

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Cited by:
  1. Framingham, Charles F. & Craddock, W.J., 1974. "Urban Implications of Regional and Interregional Efficiency in Agricultural Production," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 4(1).
  2. Rezitis, Anthony N., 2003. "Volatility Spillover Effects in Greek Consumer Meat Prices," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 4(1), January.
  3. Maitre d'Hotel, Elodie & le Cotty, Tristan & Jayne, Thomas S., 2012. "Is A Public Regulation Of Food Price Volatility Feasible In Africa? An Arch Approach In Kenya," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122551, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  4. Anonymous, 2012. "Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Volume 8, Issue 1," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 8(1).
  5. Marcel Fafchamps & Ruth Vargas Hill, 2008. "Price Transmission and Trader Entry in Domestic Commodity Markets," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 729-766.
  6. Kirk, Robert, 1971. "Growth Potential Identification and Public Investment Strategy," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 1(1).
  7. Abdulai, Awudu, 2000. "Spatial price transmission and asymmetry in the Ghanaian maize market," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 327-349, December.
  8. Shively, Gerald E., 2001. "Price thresholds, price volatility, and the private costs of investment in a developing country grain market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 399-414, August.
  9. Badiane, Ousmane & Shively, Gerald E., 1998. "Spatial integration, transport costs, and the response of local prices to policy changes in Ghana," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 411-431, August.
  10. Ankamah-Yeboah, Isaac, 2012. "Spatial Price Transmission in the Regional Maize Markets in Ghana," MPRA Paper 49720, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 0. "Food Price Volatility in Developing Countries and its Determinants," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, vol. 52.
  12. Langyintuo, Augustine S., 2010. "Grain price adjustment asymmetry: the case of cowpea in Ghana," 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa 96165, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE) & Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA).
  13. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Food price volatility in developing countries and its determinants," 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 156132, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  14. Bolotova, Yuliya & Connor, John M. & Miller, Douglas J., 2005. "The Impact of Collusion on Price Behavior: Empirical Results from Two Recent Cases," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19164, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  15. Pede, Valerien O. & Valera, Harold Glenn A. & Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & McKenzie, Andrew M., 2013. "Nonlinearities in Regional Rice Prices in the Philippines: Evidence from a Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) Approach," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150246, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  16. Serra, Teresa & Gil, Jose Maria, 2012. "Price volatility in food markets: can stock building mitigate price fluctuations?," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126055, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  17. Kim, Kwansoo & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2002. "A Dynamic Analysis Of The Effects Of A Price Support Program On Price Dynamics And Price Volatility," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(02), December.

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