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The empirical relevance of the competitive storage model

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Author Info

  • Cafiero, Carlo
  • Bobenrieth H., Eugenio S.A.
  • Bobenrieth H., Juan R.A.
  • Wright, Brian D.

Abstract

The empirical relevance of models of competitive storage arbitrage in explaining commodity price behavior has been seriously challenged in a series of pathbreaking papers by (Deaton and Laroque, 1992), (Deaton and Laroque, 1995) and (Deaton and Laroque, 1996). Here we address their major criticism, that the model is in general unable to explain the degree of serial correlation observed in the prices of twelve major commodities. First, we present a simple numerical version of their model which, contrary to Deaton and Laroque (1992), can generate the high levels of serial correlation observed in commodity prices, if it is parameterized to generate realistic levels of price variation. Then, after estimating the (Deaton and Laroque, 1995) and (Deaton and Laroque, 1996) model using their data set, model specification and econometric approach, we show that the use of a much finer grid to approximate the equilibrium price function yields quite different estimates for most commodities. Results are obtained for coffee, copper, jute, maize, palm oil, sugar and tin that support the specifications of the storage model with positive constant marginal storage cost and no deterioration as in Gustafson (1958a). Consumption demand has a low response to price and, except for sugar, stockouts are infrequent. The observed magnitudes of serial correlation of price match those implied by the estimated model.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 162 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: 44-54

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:162:y:2011:i:1:p:44-54

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

Related research

Keywords: Autocorrelation Commodity prices Pseudo maximum likelihood Simulation Storage;

References

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  1. Albert Park, 2006. "Risk and Household Grain Management in Developing Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(514), pages 1088-1115, October.
  2. Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1981. "Pseudo maximum likelihood methods : theory," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8129, CEPREMAP.
  3. Wright, Brian D & Williams, Jeffrey C, 1982. "The Economic Role of Commodity Storage," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 596-614, September.
  4. Miranda, Mario J & Helmberger, Peter G, 1988. "The Effects of Commodity Price Stabilization Programs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 46-58, March.
  5. Alexander Michaelides & Serena Ng, 1997. "Estimating the Rational Expectations Model of Speculative Storage: A Monte Carlo Comparison of Three Simulation Estimators," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 373, Boston College Department of Economics.
  6. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1990. "On The Behavior of Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 3439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 2003. "A model of commodity prices after Sir Arthur Lewis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 289-310, August.
  8. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
  9. Working, Holbrook & Hobe, Adelaide M., 1929. "The Post-Harvest Depression of Wheat Prices," Wheat Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 01, November.
  10. Bobenrieth H, Eugenio S A & Bobenrieth H, Juan R A & Wright, Brian D, 2004. "A Model of Supply of Storage," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(3), pages 605-16, April.
  11. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. David M. Arseneau & Sylvain Leduc, 2012. "Commodity price movements in a general equilibrium model of storage," International Finance Discussion Papers 1054, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Alexandros SARRIS, 2014. "Options for Developing Countries to Deal with Global Food Commodity Market Volatility," Working Papers P98, FERDI.
  3. Larson, Donald F. & Lampietti, Julian & Gouel, Christophe & Cafiero, Carlo & Roberts, John, 2012. "Food security and storage in the Middle East and North Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6031, The World Bank.
  4. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash, 2013. "Optimal fiscal policy and different degrees of access to international capital markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 336-352.
  5. Gouel, Christophe, 2013. "Food price volatility and domestic stabilization policies in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6393, The World Bank.
  6. Gouel, Christophe & Jean, Sebastien, 2012. "Optimal food price stabilization in a small open developing country," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5943, The World Bank.
  7. Stuermer, Martin, 2013. "150 Years of Boom and Bust: What Drives Mineral Commodity Prices?," MPRA Paper 51859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Karlygash Kuralbayeva, 2011. "Fiscal Policy Adjustment to Shocks in Commodity-Producing Countries," OxCarre Working Papers 060, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  9. Roberts, Michael J. & Tran, A. Nam, 2012. "Commodity Price Adjustment in a Competitive Storage Model with an Application to the US Biofuel Policies," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124869, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  10. Assa, Hirbod & Dabbous, Amal & Gospodinov, Nikolay, 2013. "A staggered pricing approach to modeling speculative storage: implications for commodity price dynamics," Working Paper 2013-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  11. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Food price volatility in developing countries and its determinants," 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 156132, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  12. Tran, A. Nam & Welch, Jarrod R. & Lobell, David & Roberts, Michael J. & Schlenker, Wolfram, 2012. "Commodity Prices and Volatility in Response to Anticipated Climate Change," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124827, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  13. Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Comparing Numerical Methods for Solving the Competitive Storage Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 267-295, February.
  14. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2014. "Implications of domestic price insulation for global food price behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 272-288.
  15. Alexandros SARRIS, 2014. "Options for Developing Countries to Deal with Global Food Commodity Market Volatility," Working Papers P98, FERDI.
  16. Roberts, Michael J. & Tran, A. Nam, 2013. "Conditional Suspension of the US Ethanol Mandate using Threshold Price inside a Competitive Storage Model," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150717, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  17. Brian Wright, 2014. "Global Biofuels: Key to the Puzzle of Grain Market Behavior," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 73-98, Winter.
  18. Martin, William J., 2012. "Managing High and Volatile Food Prices," Trade Policy Issues Papers 142732, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  19. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2011. "Commodity Booms and Busts," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-118, October.

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