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The Economics of Grain Price Volatility

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  • Brian D. Wright

Abstract

Recent volatility of prices of major grains has generated a wide array of analyses and policy prescriptions that reveal the inability of economists to approach a consensus on the nature of the phenomenon and its implications for policy. This review of market events and their economic interpretations finds that recent price spikes are not as unusual as many discussions imply. Further, the balance between consumption, available supply, and stocks seems to be as relevant for our understanding of these markets as it was decades ago. Though there is much to be learned about commodity markets, the tools at hand are capable of explaining the main forces at work, and of giving good guidance to policymakers confronted with a bewildering variety of expensive policy prescriptions. Copyright 2011, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its journal Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy.

Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 32-58

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Handle: RePEc:oup:apecpp:v:33:y:2011:i:1:p:32-58

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Cited by:
  1. van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2013. "Modeling the Global Economy – Forward-Looking Scenarios for Agriculture," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  2. Michael Oppenheimer, 2013. "Climate change impacts: accounting for the human response," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 439-449, April.
  3. Cecilia Bellora & Jean-Marc Bourgeon, 2014. "Agricultural Trade, Biodiversity Effects and Food Price Volatility," Working Papers hal-01052971, HAL.
  4. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
  5. Rajcaniova, Miroslava & Drabik, Dusan & Ciaian, Pavel, 2013. "How policies affect international biofuel price linkages," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 857-865.
  6. Rausser, Gordon C. & de Gorter, Harry, 2013. "US policy contributions to agricultural commodity price fluctuations, 2006.12," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  7. Serra, Teresa & Gil, Jose Maria, 2012. "Price volatility in food markets: can stock building mitigate price fluctuations?," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126055, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  8. Gutierrez, L. & Piras, F., 2013. "A Global Wheat Market Model (GLOWMM) for the Analysis of Wheat Export Prices," 2013 Second Congress, June 6-7, 2013, Parma, Italy 149760, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
  9. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Volatility transmission in agricultural futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 541-546.
  10. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Food price volatility in developing countries and its determinants," 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 156132, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  11. Boussios, David & Barkley, Andrew P., 2012. "Kansas Grain Supply Response to Economic and Biophysical Factors, 1977-2007," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124385, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  12. Jha, Shikha & Kubo, Kensuke & Ramaswami, Bharat, 2013. "International Trade and Risk Sharing in the Global Rice Market: The Impact of Foreign and Domestic Supply Shocks," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 372, Asian Development Bank.
  13. Abbott, Philip C. & Hurt, Christopher & Tyner, Wallace E., 2011. "What’s Driving Food Prices in 2011?," Issue Reports 112927, Farm Foundation.
  14. Ott, Herve, 2012. "Which factors drive which volatility in the grain sector?," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122486, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  15. Serra, Teresa, 2012. "Biofuel-related price volatility literature: a review and new approaches," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126057, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  16. Tetsuji Tanaka & Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2011. "What Drove the Crop Price Hikes in the Food Crisis?," GRIPS Discussion Papers 11-16, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
  17. Philip Abbott, 2013. "Biofuels, Binding Constraints and Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 18873, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Philip Abbott, 2013. "Biofuels, Binding Constraints and Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Manh Hai, Nguyen & Talbot, Theodore, 2013. "The political economy of food price policy: The case of rice prices in Vietnam," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  20. Drabik, Dusan, 2011. "The Theory of Biofuel Policy and Food Grain Prices," Working Papers 126615, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  21. Emiliano Magrini & Ayca Donmez, 2013. "Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility and Its Macroeconomic Determinants: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," JRC-IPTS Working Papers JRC84138, Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies, Joint Research Centre.
  22. Walid Mensi & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Seong-Min Yoon, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices," Working Papers 2014-160, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

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