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How Much Of Commodity Price Behavior Can A Rational Expectations Storage Model Explain?

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Author Info
Peterson, Hikaru H.
Tomek, William G.
Abstract

A rational expectations competitive storage model is applied to the U.S. corn market to assess the aptness of this framework in explaining monthly price behavior in an actual commodity market. Relative to previous models, extensive realism is added to the model in terms of how production activities and storage costs are specified. By modeling convenience yield, "backwardation" in prices between crop years does not depend on the unrealistic assumption of zero ending stocks. Our model produces cash prices that are distributed with positive skewness and kurtosis, and mean and variance that increase over the storage season, consistent with the persistence and the occasional spikes observed in commodity prices. Futures prices are generated as conditional expectations of spot prices at contract maturity, and the variances of futures prices have realistic time-to-maturity and seasonal patterns. Model realizations of cash and futures prices over many "years" are used to demonstrate the wide variety of price behaviors that can be observed in an efficient market with a similar market structure, implying that marketing strategies based on short, historical samples of prices to manage price risk can be misleading.

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Paper provided by Kansas State University, Department of Agricultural Economics in its series Staff Papers with number 30712.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ags:ksaesp:30712

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Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lence, Sergio H & Hayenga, Marvin L, 2001. " On the Pitfalls of Multi-year Rollover Hedges: The Case of Hedge-to-Arrive Contracts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 83(1), pages 107-19, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Michaelides, Alexander & Ng, Serena, 2000. "Estimating the rational expectations model of speculative storage: A Monte Carlo comparison of three simulation estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 231-266, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bryan R. Routledge & Duane J. Seppi & Chester S. Spatt, 2000. "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1297-1338, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Miranda, Mario J, 1998. "Numerical Strategies for Solving the Nonlinear Rational Expectations Commodity Market Model," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1-2), pages 71-87, April. [Downloadable!]
  5. Miranda, Mario J & Glauber, Joseph W, 1993. "Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models of Primary Commodity Markets with Private and Government Stockholding," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 463-70, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Tomek, William G. & Myers, Robert J., 1993. "Empirical Analysis Of Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Viewpoint," Working Papers 6847, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management. [Downloadable!]
  7. Holt, Matthew T., 1994. "Price-Band Stabilization Programs And Risk: An Application To The U.S. Corn Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(02), December. [Downloadable!]
  8. Miranda, Mario J & Helmberger, Peter G, 1988. "The Effects of Commodity Price Stabilization Programs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 46-58, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Shonkwiler, J S & Maddala, G S, 1985. "Modeling Expectations of Bounded Prices: An Application to the Market for Corn," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 697-702, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 2000. "U.S. Farm Policy and the Variability of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 00-wp239, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Goodwin, Barry K. & Roberts, Matthew C. & Coble, Keith H., 2000. "Measurement Of Price Risk In Revenue Insurance: Implications Of Distributional Assumptions," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(01), July. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Holt, Matthew T & Johnson, Stanley R, 1989. "Bounded Price Variation and Rational Expectations in an Endogenous Switching Model of the U.S. Corn Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 605-13, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Lester G. Telser, 1958. "Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 233. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Ng, Serena, 1996. "Looking for evidence of speculative stockholding in commodity markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 123-143. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Martines-Filho, Joao & Hagedorn, Lewis A., 2005. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans over 1995-2003," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14775, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
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