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U.S. Farm Policy And The Variability Of Commodity Prices And Farm Revenues

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Author Info

  • Lence, Sergio H.
  • Hayes, Dermot J.

Abstract

A dynamic three-commodity rational-expectations storage model is used to compare the impact of the Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 with a free-market policy, and with the agricultural policies that preceded the FAIR Act. Results support the hypothesis that the changes enacted by FAIR did not lead to permanent significant increases in the volatility of farm prices or revenues. An important finding is that the main economic impacts of the pre-FAIR scenario, relative to the free-market regime, were to transfer income to farmers and to substitute government storage for private storage in a way that did little to support prices or to stabilize farm incomes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management in its series 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois with number 18937.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ags:ncrtci:18937

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Web page: http://www.agebb.missouri.edu/ncrext/ncr134/

Related research

Keywords: FAIR Act; price volatility; storage; Agricultural and Food Policy;

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References

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  1. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  2. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399, October.
  3. Newbery, D M G & Stiglitz, J E, 1979. "The Theory of Commodity Price Stabilisation Rules: Welfare Impacts and Supply Responses," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(356), pages 799-817, December.
  4. repec:ias:cpaper:00-fsr1 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Gisser, Micha, 1993. "Price Support, Acreage Controls, and Efficient Redistribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 584-611, August.
  6. Babcock, Bruce A. & Beghin, John C. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fuller, Frank H. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Kaus, Phillip J. & Fang, Cheng & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen & Womack, Abner W. & Young, Robert E, 2000. "FAPRI 2000 U.S. Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports 32054, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
  7. Lansford, Vernon & Madison, Daniel & Thompson, Wyatt & Willott, Brian & Adams, Gary M. & Babcock, Bruce A. & Beghin, John C. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fuller, Frank H. & Chaudhary, Sudhir & Fabiosa, Jaci, 1999. "FAPRI 1999 U.S. Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports 32049, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
  8. Chambers, Marcus J & Bailey, Roy E, 1996. "A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 924-57, October.
  9. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
  10. Wright, Brian D, 1979. "The Effects of Ideal Production Stabilization: A Welfare Analysis Under Rational Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1011-33, October.
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