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Do Futures Benefit Farmers?

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  • Lence, Sergio H.

Abstract

Simulations are used to analyze welfare and market- and farm-level effects of making futures available to producers of a storable commodity. Key features of the model are the explicit consideration of dynamic impacts due to inventories, and of aggregate market effects associated with futures adoption by some producers. Application to the natural rubber market shows that futures availability can lead to sizeable market- and farm-level effects. Futures availability enhances consumer welfare, reduces non-adopter welfare, and yields important welfare gains for adopters when their market share is small and welfare losses when they account for a sufficiently large market share.

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File URL: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/sites/default/files/publications/papers/p5462-2008-04-19.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 12919.

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Date of creation: 19 Apr 2008
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Publication status: Published in American Journal of Agricultural Economics, February 2009, vol. 91 no. 1, pp. 154-167
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12919

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Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
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Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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Keywords: Commodity markets; futures; natural rubber; rational expectations; storage model; welfare analysis;

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References

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  1. Zant, Wouter, 2001. "Hedging Price Risks of Farmers by Commodity Boards: A Simulation Applied to the Indian Natural Rubber Market," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 691-710, April.
  2. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1995. "The equity premium: it's still a puzzle," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 102, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Lence, Sergio H. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2000. "U.S. Farm Policy And The Variability Of Commodity Prices And Farm Revenues," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18937, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  4. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 1991. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521326162.
  5. Chambers, Marcus J & Bailey, Roy E, 1996. "A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 924-57, October.
  6. Christian Gollier, 2004. "The Economics of Risk and Time," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262572249, December.
  7. Turnovsky, Stephen J & Campbell, Robert B, 1985. "The Stabilizing and Welfare Properties of Futures Markets: A Simulation Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 277-303, June.
  8. Geweke, John, 1988. "Antithetic acceleration of Monte Carlo integration in Bayesian inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 73-89.
  9. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
  10. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1983. "The Determination of Spot and Futures Prices with Storable Commodities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1363-87, September.
  11. Kawai, Masahiro, 1983. "Spot and Futures Prices of Nonsotrable Commodities under Rational Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(2), pages 235-54, May.
  12. Newbery, David M, 1989. "The Theory of Food Price Stabilisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(398), pages 1065-82, December.
  13. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  14. Britto, Ronald, 1984. "The Simultaneous Determination of Spot and Futures Prices in a Simple Model with Production Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 351-65, May.
  15. Williams, Jeffrey C., 2001. "Commodity futures and options," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 745-816 Elsevier.
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Cited by:
  1. Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2012. "Assessing the economic costs of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium," 86th Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2012, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 134712, Agricultural Economics Society.
  2. Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2012. "Assessing the economic costs of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium approach," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122438, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2013. "Assessing the economic costs of a foot and mouth disease outbreak on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 97-107.
  4. Revoredo-Giha, Cesar & Zuppiroli, Marco, 2012. "Effectiveness of hedging within the high price volatility context," Working Papers 142546, Scottish Agricultural College, Land Economy Research Group.
  5. Gouel, Christophe, 2013. "Food price volatility and domestic stabilization policies in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6393, The World Bank.
  6. Fabienne Féménia & Alexandre Gohin, 2010. "Faut-il une intervention publique pour stabiliser les marchés agricoles ? Revue des questions non résolues," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 91(4), pages 435-456.
  7. Revoredo-Giha, Cesar & Zuppiroli, Marco, 0. "Commodity futures markets: are they an effective price risk management tool for the European wheat supply chain?," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 3.
  8. Sasha C. Breger Bush, 2010. "The World Bank’s approach to increasing the vulnerability of small coffee producers," Brooks World Poverty Institute Working Paper Series 11310, BWPI, The University of Manchester.

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