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Do Futures Benefit Farmers?

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  • Sergio H. Lence

Abstract

Simulations are used to analyze welfare and market- and farm-level effects of making futures available to producers of a storable commodity. Key features of the model are the explicit consideration of dynamic impacts due to inventories, and of aggregate market effects associated with futures adoption by some producers. Application to the natural rubber market shows that futures availability can lead to sizable market- and farm-level effects. Futures availability enhances consumer welfare, reduces nonadopter welfare, and yields important welfare gains for adopters when their market share is small and welfare losses when they account for a sufficiently large market share. Copyright 2009, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01162.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its journal American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 91 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 154-167

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:91:y:2009:i:1:p:154-167

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  1. Turnovsky, Stephen J & Campbell, Robert B, 1985. "The Stabilizing and Welfare Properties of Futures Markets: A Simulation Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 277-303, June.
  2. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 2000. "U.S. Farm Policy and the Variability of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 00-wp239, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
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  11. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1983. "The Determination of Spot and Futures Prices with Storable Commodities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1363-87, September.
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  14. Zant, Wouter, 2001. "Hedging Price Risks of Farmers by Commodity Boards: A Simulation Applied to the Indian Natural Rubber Market," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 691-710, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Revoredo-Giha, Cesar & Zuppiroli, Marco, 2012. "Effectiveness of hedging within the high price volatility context," Working Papers 142546, Scottish Agricultural College, Land Economy Research Group.
  2. Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2012. "Assessing the economic costs of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium," 86th Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2012, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 134712, Agricultural Economics Society.
  3. Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Food Price Volatility and Domestic Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Fabienne Féménia & Alexandre Gohin, 2010. "Faut-il une intervention publique pour stabiliser les marchés agricoles ? Revue des questions non résolues," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 91(4), pages 435-456.
  5. Revoredo-Giha, Cesar & Zuppiroli, Marco, 0. "Commodity futures markets: are they an effective price risk management tool for the European wheat supply chain?," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 3.
  6. Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2013. "Assessing the economic costs of a foot and mouth disease outbreak on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 97-107.
  7. Sasha C. Breger Bush, 2010. "The World Bank’s approach to increasing the vulnerability of small coffee producers," Brooks World Poverty Institute Working Paper Series 11310, BWPI, The University of Manchester.
  8. Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2012. "Assessing the economic costs of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium approach," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122438, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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