Assessing the economic costs of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium
AbstractEpizootic outbreaks such as Foot and Mouth Disease are of great concern for agriculture. In this paper, we quantify the potential dynamic impacts of such a disease on Brittany, a French region with a strong livestock sector. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with rational expectations that allows us to measure the impacts of culling infected animals and restraining movements of live animals on the livestock sectors and downstream food industries. Our results show that economic losses are spread over many periods even with a one-time shock. The impacts on the primary sectors and downstream food sectors do not move in parallel. The food industries suffer most in the first period while the negative impacts on agriculture are mostly observed thereafter. Credit and wage constraints result in an estimated aggregated loss multiplied by more than 700 per cent. These results challenge the concept of a simple management policy for this disease.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Agricultural Economics Society in its series 86th Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2012, Warwick University, Coventry, UK with number 134712.
Date of creation: Apr 2012
Date of revision:
dynamics; CGE; animal disease; catastrophic event; Livestock Production/Industries; Q11; Q18;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
- Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2012-10-13 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2012-10-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2012-10-13 (Computational Economics)
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