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Assessing the economic costs of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium

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  • Gohin, Alexandre
  • Rault, Arnaud

Abstract

Epizootic outbreaks such as Foot and Mouth Disease are of great concern for agriculture. In this paper, we quantify the potential dynamic impacts of such a disease on Brittany, a French region with a strong livestock sector. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with rational expectations that allows us to measure the impacts of culling infected animals and restraining movements of live animals on the livestock sectors and downstream food industries. Our results show that economic losses are spread over many periods even with a one-time shock. The impacts on the primary sectors and downstream food sectors do not move in parallel. The food industries suffer most in the first period while the negative impacts on agriculture are mostly observed thereafter. Credit and wage constraints result in an estimated aggregated loss multiplied by more than 700 per cent. These results challenge the concept of a simple management policy for this disease.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Agricultural Economics Society in its series 86th Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2012, Warwick University, Coventry, UK with number 134712.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aesc12:134712

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Keywords: dynamics; CGE; animal disease; catastrophic event; Livestock Production/Industries; Q11; Q18;

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  1. M.-J. J. Mangen & A. M. Burrell, 2003. "Who gains, who loses? Welfare effects of classical swine fever epidemics in the Netherlands," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 125-154, June.
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  6. Lence, Sergio H., 2008. "Do Futures Benefit Farmers?," Staff General Research Papers 12919, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  7. Zhao, Zishun & Wahl, Thomas I. & Marsh, Thomas L., 2006. "Invasive Species Management: Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the U.S. Beef Industry," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25490, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  8. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S., 1998. "The Simplest Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of an Open Economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 677-714, December.
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  11. Karl M. Rich & Alex Winter-Nelson, 2007. "An Integrated Epidemiological-Economic Analysis of Foot and Mouth Disease: Applications to the Southern Cone of South America," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 682-697.
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Cited by:
  1. Rault, Arnaud, 2012. "On the effectiveness of mutual funds to cope with lasting market risks: The case of FMD in Brittany," 126th Seminar, June 27-29, 2012, Capri, Italy 125994, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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