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Monte Carlo Analysis of Mean Reversion in Commodity Futures Prices

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  • Scott H. Irwin
  • Carl R. Zulauf
  • Thomas E. Jackson

Abstract

This study examines whether mean reversion is present in corn, soybean, wheat, live hog, and live cattle futures prices. Consistent with earlier studies, asymptotic regression results provide substantial evidence of mean reversion in commodity futures price movements. In sharp contrast, the Monte Carlo regression analysis does not provide support for the existence of mean reversion in commodity futures prices. A clear implication is that the asymptotic regression results are misleading. The reason is that the small sample distributions of test statistics are not well approximated by assumed asymptotic distributions. Copyright 1996, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott H. Irwin & Carl R. Zulauf & Thomas E. Jackson, 1996. "Monte Carlo Analysis of Mean Reversion in Commodity Futures Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 387-399.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:78:y:1996:i:2:p:387-399
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carl R. Zulauf & Scott H. Irwin, 1998. "Market Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 308-331.
    2. Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Chakriya Bowman, 2004. "Forecasting Commodity Prices: Futures Versus Judgment," IMF Working Papers 2004/041, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Unterschultz, James R., 2000. "New Instruments For Co-Ordination And Risk Sharing Within The Canadian Beef Industry," Project Report Series 24046, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    4. Yoon, Byung-Sam & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2005. "Can Multiyear Rollover Hedging Increase Mean Returns?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 65-78, April.
    5. Joshua G. Maples & B. Wade Brorsen, 2022. "Handling the discontinuity in futures prices when time series modeling of commodity cash and futures prices," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 70(2), pages 139-152, June.
    6. Sushil Mohan, 2007. "Market-Based Price-Risk Management for Coffee Producers," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 199, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    7. Chad E. Hart & Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes & Na Jin, 2016. "Price Mean Reversion, Seasonality, and Options Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(3), pages 707-725.
    8. Tim Leung & Jiao Li & Xin Li & Zheng Wang, 2016. "Speculative Futures Trading under Mean Reversion," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(4), pages 281-304, December.
    9. Hikaru Hanawa Peterson & William G. Tomek, 2005. "How much of commodity price behavior can a rational expectations storage model explain?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(3), pages 289-303, November.
    10. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    11. Ma, Zonggang & Ma, Chaoqun & Wu, Zhijian, 2020. "Closed-form analytical solutions for options on agricultural futures with seasonality and stochastic convenience yield," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    12. Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Price Behavior: A Rational Expectations Storage Model of Corn," Working Papers 127682, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    13. Power, Gabriel J. & Turvey, Calum G., 2008. "On Term Structure Models of Commodity Futures Prices and the Kaldor-Working Hypothesis," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37608, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    14. Yoon, Byung-Sam & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2000. "Rollover Hedging," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18938, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    15. Tomek, William G. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa, 2000. "Risk Management In Agricultural Markets: A Survey," 2000 Producer Marketing and Risk Management Conference, January 13-14, Orlando, FL 19580, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Lordkipanidze, Nasibrola & Tomek, William, 2014. "Pricing of Options with STochastic Volatilities: Application to Agricultural Commodity Contracts," Staff Papers 189185, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    17. Daniel Ziegler & Katrin Schmitz & Christoph Weber, 2012. "Optimal electricity generation portfolios," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 381-399, August.

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