Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

How much of commodity price behavior can a rational expectations storage model explain?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Hikaru Hanawa Peterson
  • William G. Tomek

Abstract

A rational expectations competitive storage model was applied to the U.S. corn market, to assess the aptness of this framework in explaining monthly price behavior in an actual commodity market. Relative to previous models, extensive realism was added to the model, in terms of how production activities and storage costs are specified. By modeling convenience yield, "backwardation" in prices between crop years did not depend on the unrealistic assumption of zero ending stocks. Our model generated cash prices that were distributed with positive skewness and kurtosis, and mean and variance that increased over the storage season, comparable to the persistence and the occasional spikes observed in commodity prices. Futures prices were generated as conditional expectations of cash prices at contract maturity, and the variances of futures prices exhibited realistic time-to-maturity and seasonal patterns. Model realizations of cash and futures prices over many "years" were used to demonstrate the wide variety of price behaviors that could be observed in an efficient market with a similar market structure, implying that economic and policy implications drawn from short, historical samples of prices could be misleading. Copyright 2005 International Association of Agricultural Economics.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1574-0864.2005.00068.x
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its journal Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (November)
Pages: 289-303

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:33:y:2005:i:3:p:289-303

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0169-5150
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0169-5150

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ng, S., 1995. "Looking for Evidence of Speculative Stockholding in Commodity Markets," Cahiers de recherche 9514, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  2. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 2000. "U.S. Farm Policy and the Variability of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 00-wp239, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
  3. Shonkwiler, J S & Maddala, G S, 1985. "Modeling Expectations of Bounded Prices: An Application to the Market for Corn," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 697-702, November.
  4. Lence, Sergio H. & Hayenga, Marvin L., 2001. "On the Pitfalls of Multi-Year Rollover Hedges: The Case of Hedge-To-Arrive Contracts," Staff General Research Papers 1965, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  5. Bryan R. Routledge & Duane J. Seppi & Chester S. Spatt, 2000. "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1297-1338, 06.
  6. Miranda, Mario J, 1998. "Numerical Strategies for Solving the Nonlinear Rational Expectations Commodity Market Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 11(1-2), pages 71-87, April.
  7. Scott H. Irwin & Carl R. Zulauf & Thomas E. Jackson, 1996. "Monte Carlo Analysis of Mean Reversion in Commodity Futures Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 387-399.
  8. Tomek, William G. & Myers, Robert J., 1993. "Empirical Analysis Of Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Viewpoint," Working Papers 6847, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  9. Holt, Matthew & Johnson, Stanley R., 1989. "Bounded Price Variation and Rational Expectations in an Endogenous Switching Model of the U.S. Corn Market," Staff General Research Papers 267, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  10. Miranowski, John & Tegene, Abebayehu & Huffman, Wallace, 1988. "Dynamic Corn Supply Functions: A Model with Explicit Optimization," Staff General Research Papers 10699, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  11. Roberts, Matthew C. & Goodwin, Barry K. & Coble, Keith H., 1998. "Measurement Of Price Risk In Revenue Insurance: Implications Of Distributional Assumptions," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20840, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  12. Myers, Robert J., 1994. "Time Series Econometrics and Commodity Price Analysis: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(02), August.
  13. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 1991. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521326162, April.
  14. Miranda, Mario J & Helmberger, Peter G, 1988. "The Effects of Commodity Price Stabilization Programs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 46-58, March.
  15. Holt, Matthew T., 1999. "A Linear Approximate Acreage Allocation Model," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(02), December.
  16. Lester G. Telser, 1958. "Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 233.
  17. Holt, Matthew T., 1994. "Price-Band Stabilization Programs And Risk: An Application To The U.S. Corn Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(02), December.
  18. Alexander Michaelides & Serena Ng, 1997. "Estimating the Rational Expectations Model of Speculative Storage: A Monte Carlo Comparison of Three Simulation Estimators," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 373, Boston College Department of Economics.
  19. Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Price Behavior: A Rational Expectations Storage Model of Corn," Working Papers 127682, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  20. Miranda, Mario J & Glauber, Joseph W, 1993. "Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models of Primary Commodity Markets with Private and Government Stockholding," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 463-70, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Verpoorten, Marijke & Arora, Abhimanyu, 2011. "Food Prices, Social Unrest and the Facebook Generation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114230, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Tokovenko, Oleksiy & Gunter, Lewell F., 2008. "Quarterly Storage Model of U.S. Cotton Market: Estimation of the Basis under Rational Expectations," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6435, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  3. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2014. "Bubbles in food commodity markets: Four decades of evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 129-155.
  4. Ghoshray Atanu & Kejriwal Mohitosh & Wohar Mark, 2014. "Breaks, trends and unit roots in commodity prices: a robust investigation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 23-40, February.
  5. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Martines-Filho, Joao & Hagedorn, Lewis A., 2005. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans over 1995-2003," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14775, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
  6. Shaun K. Roache, 2010. "What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility?," IMF Working Papers 10/129, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Food price volatility in developing countries and its determinants," 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 156132, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  8. Lin, Chuanyi & Roberts, Matthew C., 2006. "Storability on Modeling Commodity Futures Prices," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21484, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  9. Franken, Jason R.V. & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2006. "Do Interest Rates Explain Disaggregate Commodity Price Growth?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21319, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  10. Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao & Batts, Ryan M., 2006. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2004," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37513, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
  11. von Braun, Joachim & Tadesse, Getaw, 2012. "Global Food Price Volatility and Spikes: An Overview of Costs, Causes, and Solutions," Discussion Papers 120021, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:33:y:2005:i:3:p:289-303. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.