Breaks and Trends in OECD Countries’ Energy-GDP Ratios
AbstractThis paper uses the econometrics of endogenous structural breaks to examine changes in energy intensity for OECD countries over 1960-2009. Nearly all OECD countries currently have significant negatively trending energy-GDP ratios; but for several countries those negative trends are recent, and two countries have recent significant positive trends. For several countries, energy intensity had a significant positive trend followed by a break and then a significant negative trend. Those break-dates, however, appear to have little to do with level of development (GDP per capita). Instead, among the likely causes of break timing are the volatile energy prices of the 1970s and early 1980s and the increased concern for the environment in the late 1960s and early 1970s. These findings have implications for future modeling of energy consumption as well as for the role of energy price policy in developed and developing countries.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its series 2011 Conference (55th), February 8-11, 2011, Melbourne, Australia with number 100578.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
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energy intensity; endogenous structural breaks; modeling environment and development; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q43; O13;
Other versions of this item:
- Liddle, Brantley, 2012. "Breaks and trends in OECD countries' energy–GDP ratios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 502-509.
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
- O13 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
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