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Trends and Breaks in per-capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1870-2028

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Markku Lanne
Matti Liski

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Abstract

We consider per-capita carbon dioxide emission trends in 16 early developed countries over the period 1870-2028. Using a multiple-break time series method we find more evidence for very early downturns in per-capita trends than for late downturns, during the oil price shocks of the 1970s. Only for two countries do downturns in trends imply downward sloping stable trends. We also consider trends in emission composition and find little evidence for in-sample peaks for emissions from liquid and gaseous fuel uses. These results lead us to reject the oil price shocks as events causing permanent *Keywords: climate change; unit roots; structural change. JEL classification: C22; N0; O1. Dept. of Economics, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 54, FIN-00014 University of Helsinki Helsinki School of Economics and MIT-CEEPR, P.O.Box 1210, 00101 Helsinki, Finland. We thank Dick Eckaus, Denny Ellerman, Pekka Ilmakunnas, Jan Kunnas, Erkki Pihkala, John Reilly, Anne Toppinen, Ian Sue Wing, and seminar participants at HSE for valuable comments and discussions. 1 breaks in the structure and level of emissions, a conclusion often made in analyses using shorter postwar data.

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Paper provided by Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research in its series Working Papers with number 0302.

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Date of creation: Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:mee:wpaper:0302

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  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Vogelsang, Timothy J & Perron, Pierre, 1998. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1073-1100, November.
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  3. Diebold, Francis X & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Unit-Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 265-73, July.
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  4. Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Environment," NBER Working Papers 4634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Selden Thomas M. & Song Daqing, 1994. "Environmental Quality and Development: Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 147-162, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
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  9. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
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  10. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:6:p:818-49 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Bierens, Herman J, 2000. "Nonparametric Nonlinear Cotrending Analysis, with an Application to Interest and Inflation in the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 323-37, July.
  12. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 818-848, December. [Downloadable!]
  13. Warwick J. McKibbin & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2002. "The Role of Economics in Climate Change Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 107-129, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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