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Trends and Breaks in Per-Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1870-2028

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  • Markku Lanne and Matti Liski

Abstract

We consider per-capita carbon dioxide emission trends in 16 early industrialized countries over the period 1870-2028. Using a multiple-break time series method we find more evidence for very early downturns in per-capita trends than for late downturns during the oil price shocks of the 1970s. Only for two countries do downturns in trends imply downward sloping stable trends. We also consider trends in emission composition and find little evidence for in-sample peaks for emissions from liquid and gaseous fuel uses. These results lead us to reject the oil price shocks as events causing permanent breaks in the structure and level of emissions, a conclusion often made in analyses using shorter postwar data.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.

Volume (Year): Volume 25 (2004)
Issue (Month): Number 4 ()
Pages: 41-66

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Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2004v25-04-a03

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Cited by:
  1. Mariam Camarero & Juana Castillo & Andrés Picazo-Tadeo & Cecilio Tamarit, 2013. "Eco-Efficiency and Convergence in OECD Countries," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(1), pages 87-106, May.
  2. Yannick LE PEN & Benoît SEVI, 2008. "On the non-convergence of energy intensities: evidence from a pair-wise econometric approach," Cahiers du CREDEN (CREDEN Working Papers) 08.12.79, CREDEN (Centre de Recherche en Economie et Droit de l'Energie), Faculty of Economics, University of Montpellier 1.
  3. Carlos Ordás Criado & Jean-Marie Grether, 2010. "Convergence in per capita CO2 emissions: a robust distributional approach," CEPE Working paper series 10-70, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
  4. Westerlund, Joakim & Basher, Syed A., 2007. "Testing for Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Using a Century of Panel Data," MPRA Paper 3262, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Melenberg, B. & Vollebergh, H.R.J. & Dijkgraaf, E., 2011. "Grazing the Commons: Global Carbon Emissions Forever?," Discussion Paper 2011-020, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis, 2009. "Club Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(1), pages 47-70, September.
  7. Apergis, Nicholas & Eleftheriou, Sofia & Payne, James E., 2013. "The relationship between international financial reporting standards, carbon emissions, and R&D expenditures: Evidence from European manufacturing firms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 57-66.
  8. Marco Barassi & Matthew Cole & Robert Elliott, 2008. "Stochastic Divergence or Convergence of Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Re-examining the Evidence," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 121-137, May.
  9. Frauke Dobnik, 2011. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Revisited: Structural Breaks and Cross-section Dependence," Ruhr Economic Papers 0303, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  10. Ross McKitrick, 2007. "Why did US air pollution decline after 1970?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 491-513, November.
  11. Dong, Feng & Li, Xiaohui & Long, Ruyin & Liu, Xiaoyan, 2013. "Regional carbon emission performance in China according to a stochastic frontier model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 525-530.
  12. Chang, Chun Ping & Berdiev, Aziz N., 2011. "The political economy of energy regulation in OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 816-825, September.
  13. Marco Barassi & Matthew Cole & Robert Elliott, 2011. "The Stochastic Convergence of CO 2 Emissions: A Long Memory Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 49(3), pages 367-385, July.
  14. Mariam Camarero & Yurena Mendoza & Javier Ordóñez, 2011. "Re-examining CO2 emissions. Is the assessment of convergence meaningless?," Working Papers 2011/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).

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