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Die demographische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland : Gutachten im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie

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Author Info

  • Joachim Ragnitz

    ()

  • Stefan Eichler
  • Beate Grundig
  • Harald Lehmann
  • Carsten Pohl
  • Lutz Schneider
  • Helmut Seitz
  • Marcel Thum

Abstract

In den neuen Bundesländern wird die Bevölkerung auch in den kommenden Jahren weiter massiv schrumpfen. Dieser absehbare Rückgang der Bevölkerung und die damit einhergehende Alterung kann die gesamtwirtschaftliche Dynamik dämpfen. Aus diesem Grund wurde im Auftrag des Bundeswirtschaftsministeriums eine Studie zu den Implikationen der demographischen Entwicklung in den neuen Bundesländern erarbeitet. Mit Blick auf den Arbeitsmarkt wurden mehrere Simulationsrechnungen bis zum Jahr 2020 durchgeführt, die zeigen, dass die zukünftige Arbeitsmarktsituation durch zwei gleichgerichtete Entwicklungen geprägt sein wird. Einerseits vermindert sich das Arbeitsangebot, andererseits führt die demographische Entwicklung auch zu einer Reduktion der Arbeitsnachfrage im Sektor nicht-handelbarer Güter. Wie sich der Arbeitsmarkt für die einzelnen Qualifikationsstufen entwickeln wird, hängt wesentlich von der Lohnentwicklung ab. Die relative Knappheit bei Hochqualifizierten dürfte auf Dauer zu Lohnsteigerungen führen, während bei anhaltender Arbeitslosigkeit in den übrigen Arbeitsmarktsegmenten kein Lohndruck nach oben entsteht.

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Bibliographic Info

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This book is provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series ifo Dresden Studien with number 41 and published in 2007.

Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodrs:41

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Keywords: Horizontaler Finanzausgleich; Regionale Bevölkerungsentwicklung; Bevölkerungsentwicklung; Prognose; Neue Bundesländer; Alte Bundesländer; Deutschland;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Beate Grundig & Carsten Pohl, 2007. "Demographischer Wandel in Ostdeutschland: Fluch oder Segen für den Arbeitsmarkt?," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(03), pages 3-13, 06.
  2. Joachim Ragnitz, 2009. "Ostdeutschland heute: Viel erreicht, viel zu tun," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(18), pages 03-13, 09.
  3. Eckart Bomsdorf & Bernhard Babel, 2008. "Bevölkerungsentwicklung in Sachsen bis 2040 : Modellrechnungen und regressionsanalytische Sensitivitätsbetrachtungen," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(02), pages 19-28, 04.
  4. Joachim Ragnitz & Stefan Arent & Johannes Steinbrecher & Björn Ziegenbalg, 2010. "Wachstumsperspektiven und wirtschaftspolitische Handlungsoptionen für Sachsen-Anhalt," ifo Dresden Studien, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 54, October.
  5. Sebastian Döll & Wolfgang Nagl & Joachim Ragnitz & Christian Thater, 2009. "Mittelfristige Einkommensentwicklung in Sachsen," ifo Dresden Studien, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 48, October.
  6. Joachim Ragnitz, 2009. "Angleichung der Lebensverhältnisse in Ostdeutschland: Eine regional differenzierte Analyse," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(04), pages 28-38, 08.
  7. Alexandra Schröter, 2008. "Perspektiven der Innovationspolitik in den neuen Bundesländern," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(02), pages 40-52, 04.
  8. Joachim Ragnitz, 2009. "Wirtschaftspolitische Aufgaben in Ostdeutschland," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(05), pages 21-29, October.
  9. Sebastian Döll & Christian Thater, 2009. "Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Sachsen und seinen Regionen bis zum Jahr 2020," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(02), pages 24-35, 04.

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