Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Demographischer Wandel in Ostdeutschland: Fluch oder Segen für den Arbeitsmarkt?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Beate Grundig
  • Carsten Pohl
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Anhand eines theoriebasierten Simulationsmodells werden die Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf den ostdeutschen Arbeitsmarkt bis zum Jahr 2020 untersucht. Demnach könnte die Zahl der Erwerbstätigen insgesamt von 6,7 auf 6,1 Mill. zurückgehen. Da das Arbeitsangebot schneller schrumpft als die Arbeitsnachfrage, zeigen die Simulationsergebnisse einen Rückgang der Arbeitslosigkeit. Der aufgezeigte Mangel an hoch qualifizierten Fachkräften ab dem Jahr 2013 könnte allerdings auch negative Beschäftigungseffekte für die Niedrig- und Mittelqualifizierten nach sich ziehen. Falls es gelingt, das Angebot an Hochqualifizierten zu erhöhen, würde dies dem gesamten ostdeutschen Arbeitsmarkt helfen.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Dresden_berichtet/zs-drber-2007/ifodb_2007_3_03_13.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

    Volume (Year): 14 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 03 (06)
    Pages: 3-13

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:14:y:2007:i:03:p:3-13

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich, Germany
    Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
    Fax: +49 (89) 985369
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: Demographie; Arbeitsmarkt; Arbeitskräfte; Qualifikation; Neue Bundesländer; Deutschland;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Franz, Wolfgang, 1997. "Flexibilität der qualifikatorischen Lohnstruktur und Lastverteilung der Arbeitslosigkeit: Eine ökonometrische Analyse für Westdeutschland," ZEW Discussion Papers 97-32, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    2. Donghoon Lee & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2004. "Intersectoral Labor Mobility and the Growth of the Service Sector," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-036, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Beate Henschel & Carsten Pohl & Marcel Thum, 2008. "Demographic Change and Regional Labour Markets: The Case of Eastern Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 2315, CESifo Group Munich.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Dieter Bogai & Franziska Hirschenauer, 2008. "Die Entwicklung des Arbeitsmarktes in Ostdeutschland," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(04), pages 44-54, 08.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:14:y:2007:i:03:p:3-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.