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Der Einfluss der Alters- und Familienstrukturen auf die Ausgaben der Länder und Gemeinden

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  • Britta Baum
  • Helmut Seitz
  • Andrej Worobjew
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    Abstract

    Das Papier untersucht die Effekte des demographischen Wandels auf die öffentlichen Ausgaben, wobei ein besonderer Blick auf die föderalen Zusammenhänge gerichtet wird. Unter Verwendung von Paneldaten über die Pro-Kopf-Ausgaben der westdeutschen Bundesländer in 15 Aufgabenbereichen wird untersucht, ob von demographischen Einflussvariablen nachweisliche Effekte auf die Ausgaben ausgehen. Ökonometrische Tests zeigen einen signifikanten Einfluss der Altersstrukturen in nahezu allen Aufgabenbereichen, wogegen die Familienstruktur nur in einigen Aufgabenbereichen Einfluss zu haben scheint. Zusätzlich werden Prognosen berechnet, die Auskunft darüber geben, wie sich der in der Zukunft absehbare demographische Wandel auf die Pro-Kopf-Ausgaben der Länder und Gemeinden auswirkt. Hierbei zeigen sich durchaus quantitativ bedeutsame Effekte, die zwischen der Länder- und Gemeindeebene teilweise deutlich differieren.

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    File URL: http://ejournals.duncker-humblot.de/doi/pdf/10.3790/vjh.71.1.147
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

    Volume (Year): 71 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 147-162

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    Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:71-10-11

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    1. Jonathan Gruber & David Wise, 2001. "An International Perspective on Policies for an Aging Society," NBER Working Papers 8103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Echevarria, Cruz A, 1995. "On Age Distribution of Population, Government Expenditure and Fiscal Federalism," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 301-13, August.
    3. Fair, Ray C & Dominguez, Kathryn M, 1991. "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1276-94, December.
    4. David M. Cutler & Douglas W. Elmendorf & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1993. "Demographic Characteristics and the Public Bundle," NBER Working Papers 4283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Astrid Rosenschon, 2001. "Familienförderung in Deutschland � eine Bestandsaufnahme," Kiel Working Papers 1071, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    6. David K. Foot, 1984. "The Demographic Future of Fiscal Federalism in Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 10(4), pages 406-414, December.
    7. Aronsson, Thomas & Lundberg, Johan & Wikstrom, Magnus, 2000. "The impact of regional public expenditures on the local decision to spend," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 185-202, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Hagist, Christian & Vatter, Johannes, 2009. "Measuring fiscal sustainability on the municipal level: A German case study," FZG Discussion Papers 35, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG), University of Freiburg.
    2. Seitz, Helmut, 2004. "Implikationen der demographischen Veränderungen für die öffentlichen Haushalte und Verwaltungen," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 08/04, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    3. Niebuhr, Annekatrin & Stiller, Silvia, 2005. "Demographischer Wandel in Norddeutschland: Konsequenzen und Handlungsbedarf," HWWA Reports 250, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).

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