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Die Auswirkungen der demographischen Veränderungen auf die Budgetstrukturen der öffentlichen Haushalte

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  • Helmut Seitz
  • Dirk Freigang
  • Sören Högel
  • Gerhard Kempkes
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    Abstract

    We examine the impact of demographic change on the level and the structure of federal, state and local government expenditures in Germany up to the year 2020 by using estimates of the age structure sensitivity of spending in almost 30 functions. Special attention is given to differences between East and West Germany. Whereas East German state and local governments can expect significant savings from shrinking population size and from shifts in the age structure, subnational government budgets in the West are only slightly affected. Federal government spending will increase due to the rise in spending on the elderly. The results suggest that significant adjustments of public budgets at the expenditure side are necessary in order to cope with the fiscal challenges of demographic change. Copyright 2007 die Autoren Journal compilation 2007, Verein für Socialpolitik und Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik.

    Volume (Year): 8 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 2 (03)
    Pages: 147-164

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:perwir:v:8:y:2007:i:2:p:147-164

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    1. Ueli Grob & Stefan C. Wolter, 2007. "Demographic Change and Public Education Spending: A Conflict between Young and Old?," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 277-292.
    2. Martin Werding & Anita Kaltschütz, 2005. "Modellrechnungen zur langfristigen Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 17.
    3. James M. Poterba, 1996. "Demographic Structure and the Political Economy of Public Education," NBER Working Papers 5677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gradstein, Mark & Kaganovich, Michael, 2004. "Aging population and education finance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 2469-2485, December.
    5. Echevarria, Cruz A, 1995. "On Age Distribution of Population, Government Expenditure and Fiscal Federalism," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 301-13, August.
    6. Jonathan Gruber & David Wise, 2001. "An International Perspective on Policies for an Aging Society," NBER Working Papers 8103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Thomas Fester & Marcel Thum, 2003. "Die Pensionslasten : eine Bedrohung der zukünftigen Handlungsfähigkeit der Länder," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(05), pages 36-45, 06.
    8. Ronald D. Lee & Ryan D. Edwards, 2001. "The fiscal impact of population change," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
    9. Jane Sneddon Little & Robert K. Triest, 2001. "Seismic shifts: the economic impact of demographic change: an overview," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
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    Cited by:
    1. Eckart Bomsdorf & Bernhard Babel, 2008. "Bevölkerungsentwicklung in Sachsen bis 2040 : Modellrechnungen und regressionsanalytische Sensitivitätsbetrachtungen," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(02), pages 19-28, 04.
    2. Mandy Kriese, 2008. "Effizienzanalyse der sächsischen Gemeinden," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(05), pages 3-13, October.
    3. Alexander Ebertz & Mandy Kriese & Marcel Thum & Helke Seitz, 2008. "Bewertung von lokalen Standortfaktoren für Haushalte und Unternehmen in Sachsen: Entwicklung von Indikatoren zur Überprüfung der Demographietauglichkeit von Förderprojekten der Sächsischen Aufbau," ifo Dresden Studien, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 46, October.
    4. Helmut Seitz, 2009. "Demographie und soziale Infrastruktur am Beispiel des Freistaates Thüringen," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(01), pages 18-27, 02.
    5. Geys, Benny & Heinemann, Friedrich & Kalb, Alexander, 2007. "Local Governments in the Wake of Demographic Change: Efficiency and Economies of Scale in German Municipalities," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-036, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

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