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Modellrechnungen zur langfristigen Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Werding
  • Anita Dehne

Abstract

his study was commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Finance and prepared by the Ifo departments »Social Policy and Labour Markets« and »Public Finance« and concluded in August 2004. The study presents model calculations on the long-term burden capacity of public budgets against the background of current demographic change. The results are based on calculations of public costs up to 2050 for different scenarios of the development of selected public tasks that will be affected by changes in the age structure of the -population. Included is spending in the areas of statutory pension insurance, health, education as well as unemployment insurance. A projection is also made of government revenue from social insurance contributions. The results are presented in the form of computational development of government financing and debt quotas at otherwise unchanged budget policies as well as in the form of a "burden capacity" indicators that result from employing the method developed by the OECD and the EU Economic Policy Committee.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Werding & Anita Dehne, 2005. "Modellrechnungen zur langfristigen Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 17.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifobei:17
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Werding, 2006. "Child pension and the obligation to make provision for old age - the Ifo proposal for a solution to the demographic crisis of the pension system," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(07), pages 44-53, April.
    2. Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mr. Dennis P Botman, 2007. "Global Aging Pressures: Impact of Fiscal Adjustment, Policy Cooperation, and Structural Reforms," IMF Working Papers 2007/196, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Homburg, Stefan, 2005. "Nachhaltige Finanzpolitik für Niedersachsen [Sustainable Fiscal Policy for Lower Saxony]," MPRA Paper 78056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Martin Werding, 2005. "Survivor Benefits and the Gender Tax Gap in Public Pension Schemes: Observations from Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 1596, CESifo.
    5. Martin Werding & Christoph Schinke, 2014. "Sustainability of Public Finances in Germany: Simulations for the Medium and Long Run," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 64, October.
    6. Helmut Seitz & Dirk Freigang & Sören Högel & Gerhard Kempkes, 2007. "Die Auswirkungen der demographischen Veränderungen auf die Budgetstrukturen der öffentlichen Haushalte," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(2), pages 147-164, March.
    7. Werding Martin, 2008. "Survivor Benefits and the Gender-Related Tax Differential in Public Pension Schemes: Observations from Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(1), pages 110-134, February.
    8. Werding, Martin, 2011. "Demographie und öffentliche Haushalte: Simulationen zur langfristigen Tragfähigkeit der gesamtstaatlichen Finanzpolitik in Deutschland," Working Papers 03/2011, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    9. Martin Werding & Klaus Gründler & Benjamin Läpple & Robert Lehmann & Martin Mosler & Niklas Potrafke, 2020. "Sustainability of Public Finances: Does It Still Play a Role?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(09), pages 53-58, September.
    10. Martin Werding & Herbert Hofmann & Hans-Joachim Reinhard, 2007. "Das Rentenmodell der katholischen Verbände : Studie im Auftrag des Ministeriums für Arbeit, Gesundheit und Soziales des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen, der Katholischen Arbeitnehmer-Bewegung Deutschlands ," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 34, October.
    11. Martin Werding & Herbert Hofmann, 2005. "The fiscal balance of children in the German tax and social system Study commissioned by the Robert Bosch Foundation," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 27, October.
    12. Mr. Dennis P Botman & Mr. Stephan Danninger, 2007. "Tax Reform and Debt Sustainability in Germany: An Assessment Using the Global Fiscal Model," IMF Working Papers 2007/046, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Martin Werding, 2005. "Survivor Benefits and the Gender Tax-Gap in Public Pension Schemes Work Incentives and Options for Reform," ifo Working Paper Series 7, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    14. Martin Werding & Timo Hener, 2011. "Langfristige Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen: Modellrechnungen bis 2060 ; Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 53, October.
    15. Helmut Seitz & Gerhard Kempkes, 2007. "Fiscal Federalism and Demography," Public Finance Review, , vol. 35(3), pages 385-413, May.
    16. Michael Hofmann & Gerhard Kempkes & Helmut Seitz, 2008. "Demographic Change and Public Sector Budgets in a Federal System," CESifo Working Paper Series 2317, CESifo.
    17. Baumann, Alexendra & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2019. "Publikationen von Wirtschaftsforschungsinstituten im deutschsprachigen Raum - Eine bibliometrische Analyse [Publications of Economic Research Insitutes in the German Speaking Area - A bibliometric ," MPRA Paper 92240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Martin Werding, 2007. "Actuarially accurate benefit reductions for early retirement," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(16), pages 19-32, August.
    19. Christa Stewens & Bernd Raffelhüschen & Franz Knieps & Eberhard Wille & Adrian Ottnad & Johann Eekhoff, 2007. "Financeable, socially balanced and sustainable: How should statutory nursing-care insurance be reformed?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(09), pages 03-24, May.
    20. Joachim Ragnitz & Stefan Eichler & Beate Henschel & Harald Lehmann & Carsten Pohl & Lutz Schneider & Helmut Seitz & Marcel Thum, 2007. "Die demographische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland : Gutachten im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 41, July.
    21. Markus C. Kerber, 2007. "Auf dem Wege zum Bundesfinanzrat? Anmerkungen zum Gutachten des Wissenschaftlichen Beirats beim BMF „Haushaltskrisen im Bundesstaat”1," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(1), pages 93-107, January.
    22. Oliver Ehrentraut & Matthias Heidler, 2008. "Zur nachhaltigen Finanzierung der GRV: Der Beitrag der Altersgrenzenanhebung im Rentenreformprozess," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 9(4), pages 424-445, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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