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Generationen- oder Parteienkonflikt?: Eine empirische Analyse der deutschen Hochschulausgaben

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  • Ulrich Oberndorfer
  • Viktor Steiner
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    Abstract

    In diesem Beitrag wird auf der Basis von Paneldaten für die westdeutschen Bundesländer untersucht, ob und in welchem Maße der demographische Wandel sowie die unterschiedlichen politischen Parteienkonstellationen die Hochschulausgaben auf Länderebene beeinflussen. Wir finden empirische Evidenz für die Hypothese, dass die Hochschulausgaben negativ von der Bevölkerungsalterung abhängen, allerdings hängt dieses Ergebnis von der Spezifikation der Demographie-Variablen ab. In einer Spezifikation finden wir eine statistisch signifikante Elastizität der Hochschulausgaben bezüglich der Bevölkerungsalterung von größer als -1. Die geschätzten Effekte unterschiedlicher parteipolitische Konstellationen auf die Hochschulausgaben sind robust bezüglich alternativer Schätzverfahren sowie Spezifikationen der Demographie-Variablen. Allerdings entsprechen diese nicht der klassischen Partisanentheorie, nach der Parteien des linken Spektrums zu höheren Staatsausgaben neigen. Nach unseren Schätzergebnissen sind Regierungszeiten mit bürgerlichen Konstellationen sowie der Großen Koalition auf Länderebene mit höheren Hochschulausgaben verbunden als jene von SPDAlleinregierungen. Hauptgrund hierfür dürfte eine Klientelpolitik der Parteien sein, wenn man unterstellt, dass etwa bürgerliche Parteien ihre Wählerschaft vornehmlich aus den Schichten rekrutieren, die tendenziell hohe Hochschulausgaben unterstützen.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 603.

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    Length: 21 p.
    Date of creation: 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp603

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