IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/tuddps/0705.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demographic Change and Federal Systems: Some Preliminary Results for Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Seitz, Helmut
  • Freigang, Dirk
  • Kempkes, Gerhard

Abstract

The paper examines the effects of demographic change on federal, state and local government expenditures in Germany. Public spending is decomposed into almost 30 categories (functions) and simple estimates of age cost profiles are derived. Using population forecasts and assuming timeinvariant age cost profiles we estimate the effects of the ageing of the Germany society on the level and structure of expenditures at the three layers of governments. Our results show that subnational governments - state and local governments - can expect demographic savings whereas the federal government will live to see a worsening of its fiscal stance. Thus one should expect that significant vertical expenditure imbalances will arise that - if institutional settings are left unchanged - will ask for an adjustment of revenue distribution within the federation.

Suggested Citation

  • Seitz, Helmut & Freigang, Dirk & Kempkes, Gerhard, 2005. "Demographic Change and Federal Systems: Some Preliminary Results for Germany," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 07/05, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuddps:0705
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/22724/1/ddpe200507.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Willi Leibfritz & Deborah Roseveare & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1995. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: How Do They Affect Saving?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 156, OECD Publishing.
    2. James M. Poterba, 1997. "Demographic structure and the political economy of public education," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 48-66.
    3. Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
    4. Thomas Fester & Marcel Thum, 2003. "Die Pensionslasten - Eine Bedrohung der zukünftigen Handlungsfähigkeit der Länder," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(23), pages 03-09, December.
    5. Mr. Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Population Aging and its Macroeconomic Implications: A Framework for Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2002/016, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp652 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Oberndorfer, Ulrich & Steiner, Viktor, 2006. "Intergenerational Conflict, Partisan Politics, and Public Higher Education Spending: Evidence from the German States," IZA Discussion Papers 2417, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Helmut Seitz & Dirk Freigang & Sören Högel & Gerhard Kempkes, 2007. "Die Auswirkungen der demographischen Veränderungen auf die Budgetstrukturen der öffentlichen Haushalte," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(2), pages 147-164, March.
    4. Joachim Ragnitz & Stefan Eichler & Beate Henschel & Harald Lehmann & Carsten Pohl & Lutz Schneider & Helmut Seitz & Marcel Thum, 2007. "Die demographische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland : Gutachten im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 41.
    5. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp603 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Seitz, Helmut & Kempkes, Gerhard, 2005. "Fiscal Federalism and Demography," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 10/05, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    2. Mr. Lamin Y Leigh, 2006. "Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Macroeconomic Impact of an Aging Population in a Highly Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 2006/087, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Joachim Ragnitz & Stefan Eichler & Beate Henschel & Harald Lehmann & Carsten Pohl & Lutz Schneider & Helmut Seitz & Marcel Thum, 2007. "Die demographische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland : Gutachten im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 41.
    4. Ismael Sanz & Francisco Javier Velázquez, 2002. "Determinants of the Composition of Government Expenditure by Functions," European Economy Group Working Papers 13, European Economy Group.
    5. Helmut Seitz & Gerhard Kempkes, 2007. "Fiscal Federalism and Demography," Public Finance Review, , vol. 35(3), pages 385-413, May.
    6. Paul Atkinson, 2001. "The fiscal impact of population change: discussion," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
    7. Mukesh Chawla & Gordon Betcherman & Arup Banerji, 2007. "From Red to Gray : The "Third Transition" of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6741.
    8. Helmut Seitz & Dirk Freigang & Sören Högel & Gerhard Kempkes, 2007. "Die Auswirkungen der demographischen Veränderungen auf die Budgetstrukturen der öffentlichen Haushalte," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(2), pages 147-164, March.
    9. Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Spesa pensionistica:quanto conta la crescita economica?," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 54(215), pages 273-308.
    10. Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín & Niepelt, Dirk, 2012. "Ageing, government budgets, retirement, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 97-115.
    11. Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Paying for pensions: how important is economic growth?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(216), pages 73-102.
    12. Éric Bidet, 2003. "Corée du Sud : vers une société d'assurances sociales," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 44(175), pages 603-620.
    13. repec:zbw:rwirep:0557 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Tetsuo Ono, 2015. "Public education and social security: a political economy approach," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-25, February.
    15. Allouch, Nizar, 2017. "The cost of segregation in (social) networks," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 329-342.
    16. K. Mc Morrow & W. Röger, 2002. "EU pension reform - An overview of the debate and an empirical assessment of the main policy reform options," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 162, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    17. Alberto Alesina & Eliana La Ferrara, 2003. "Ethnic Diversity and Economic Performance," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2028, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    18. Erling Steigum, Jr & Carl Gjersem & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Generational Accounting and Depletable Natural Resources: The Case of Norway," NBER Chapters, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 369-396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Bisin, Alberto & Verdier, Thierry, 2017. "Inequality, redistribution and cultural integration in the Welfare State," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 122-140.
    20. Michael Kaganovich & Volker Meier, 2012. "Social Security Systems, Human Capital, and Growth in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 14(4), pages 573-600, August.
    21. Seitz, Helmut, 2004. "Implikationen der demographischen Veränderungen für die öffentlichen Haushalte und Verwaltungen," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 08/04, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Federalism; Demographic Change; Vertical Fiscal Imbalances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
    • H1 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:tuddps:0705. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pltudde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.