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The impact of demographic change on U. S. labor markets

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Author Info
Jane Sneddon Little
Robert K. Triest

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Abstract

According to U.S. Census Bureau projections, the United States will face dramatic demographic changes over the next one hundred years. The population is expected to grow more slowly but age more rapidly, with the share of the population over 65 climbing to a succession of new record highs. Additionally, the United States will once again become a nation of immigrants. Well over half of the increase in the U.S. population will be caused by the inflow of new immigrants and their children. And because the source of the immigrant inflow has shifted from Europe to Latin America and Asia, this new wave will change the voice and face of America forever. ; In this article (originally prepared for Seismic Shifts: The Economic Impact of Demographic Change, a June 2001 conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) the authors discuss the implications for U.S. labor markets of three projected demographic developments: population aging, the slow growth of the workforce, and increased immigration. In so doing, they emphasize the outlook for aggregate U.S. welfare, labor quality, and productivity growth. The authors examine the economic adjustments that might be triggered by these demographic trends, and they explore some policy implications, specifically regarding social insurance programs and immigration. Measures to extend the normal work life as lifetimes lengthen also warrant consideration. The authors' findings suggest that, with the help of such measures, the U.S. economy will likely accommodate the real demands posed by these demographic changes without serious strain-although certain groups may bear a disproportionate share of the adjustment costs. Given the importance of productivity gains to increasing our standard of living as the population ages and the relative size of our workforce shrinks, steps to raise U.S. educational attainment head the authors' list of policy recommendations.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its journal New England Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (2002)
Issue (Month): Q 1 ()
Pages: 47 - 68
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:2002:i:q1:p:47-68

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Related research
Keywords: Demography ; Emigration and immigration;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. David Card & John DiNardo, 2000. "Do Immigrant Inflows Lead to Native Outflows?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 360-367, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Ronald D. Lee & Ryan D. Edwards, 2001. "The fiscal impact of population change," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hoyt Bleakley & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1997. "Shifts in the Beveridge Curve, job matching, and labor market dynamics," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 3-19. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jens Ludwig & Greg J. Duncan & Paul Hirschfield, 2001. "Urban Poverty And Juvenile Crime: Evidence From A Randomized Housing-Mobility Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 655-679, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  6. Lawrence F. Katz & Jeffrey R. Kling & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2001. "Moving To Opportunity In Boston: Early Results Of A Randomized Mobility Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 607-654, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Paul M. Romer, 1987. "Crazy Explanations for the Productivity Slowdown," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 163-210 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  8. Nora Lustig, 2001. "Life Is Not Easy: Mexico's Quest for Stability and Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 85-106, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Alejandro Gaviria & Steven Raphael, 2001. "School-Based Peer Effects And Juvenile Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 257-268, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2000. "Can Falling Supply Explain the Rising Return to College for Younger Men? A Cohort-Based Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7655, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Razin, A. & Sadka, E., 1999. "Unskilled Migration: a Burden or a Boon for the Welfare State?," Papers 8-99, Tel Aviv.
    Other versions:
  12. Jane Sneddon Little & Robert K. Triest, 2001. "Seismic shifts: the economic impact of demographic change: an overview," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  13. James P. Smith, 1997. "The Changing Economic Circumstances of the Elderly: Income, Wealth, and Social Security," Center for Policy Research Policy Briefs 8, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
  14. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Interpreting the "One Big Wave" in U.S. Long-Term Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 7752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Goldin, Claudia, 1998. "America's Graduation from High School: The Evolution and Spread of Secondary Schooling in the Twentieth Century," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(02), pages 345-374, June. [Downloadable!]
  17. Ahuja, Vinod & Filmer, Deon, 1995. "Educational attainments in developing countries : new estimates and projections disaggregated by gender," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1489, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Jonathan Gruber & David Wise, 2001. "An International Perspective on Policies for an Aging Society," NBER Working Papers 8103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. George J. Borjas & Richard B. Freeman & Lawrence F. Katz, 1996. "Searching for the Effect of Immigration on the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 5454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. George J. Borjas, 1994. "The Economics of Immigration," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1667-1717, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Ben S. Bernanke & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2001. "Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer and Weil Seriously," NBER Working Papers 8365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2000. "Career and Marriage in the Age of the Pill," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 461-465, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Guillermina Jasso & Mark R. Rosenzweig & James P. Smith, 1998. "The Changing Skills of New Immigrants to the United States: Recent Trends and Their Determinants," NBER Working Papers 6764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pascal Hetze & Carsten Ochsen, 2005. "How Aging of the Labor Force Affects Equilibrium Unemployment," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 57, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Juan F. Jimeno, . "Demographic change, immigration, and the labour market: A European perspective," Working Papers 2004-18, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Katharine L. Bradbury, 2002. "Education and wages in the 1980s and 1990s: are all groups moving up together?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Q 1, pages 19 - 46. [Downloadable!]
  4. Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, 2002. "Educational attainment as a constraint on economic growth and social progress," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jun, pages 37-95. [Downloadable!]
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