The End of the Fertility Transition in the Developed World
AbstractBy the late 1990s the average period total fertility rate in the developed world had declined to 1.6, a level substantially lower than projected in the 1970s and 1980s. This article examines recent trends and patterns in fertility in the developed world with particular emphasis on the effects and implications of changes in the timing of childbearing. The main objective is to demonstrate that while fertility in these countries is indeed low, women's childbearing levels are not as low as period measures such as the total fertility rate suggest. To obtain a full understanding of the various dimensions of fertility change. several indicators are examined, including period and cohort fertility by birth order and childbearing preferences. An analysis of these indicators demonstrates that period fertility measures in many developed countries are temporarily depressed by a rise in the mean age at childbearing. The distortion of the TFR is as great as 0.4 births per woman in Italy and Spain. These effects have been present in many developed countries since the 1970s and could continue for years into the future. But tempo effects are temporary, and once the postponement of childbearing ends-as it eventually must-the corresponding fertility-depressing effect stops, thus putting upward pressure on period fertility. Countries with very low fertility and substantial tempo effects may well experience rises in fertility in the near future if the timing of childbearing stabilizes. Even if this happens, however, it seems unlikely that fertility will rebound to the replacement level. Copyright 2002 by The Population Council, Inc..
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by The Population Council, Inc. in its journal Population and Development Review.
Volume (Year): 28 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0098-7921
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Christoph Bühler & Dimiter Philipov, 2005. "Social capital related to fertility: theoretical foundations and empirical evidence from Bulgaria," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2005-016, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- Bloom, David E. & Sousa-Poza, Alfonso, 2010.
"Economic consequences of low fertility in Europe,"
FZID Discussion Papers
11-2010, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
- Medina V. Margarita R. & Maria Do Carmo Fonseca, 2005. "Trayectoria de paradigmas que explican la fecundidad," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
- Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The end of 'lowest-low' fertility? (with supplementary materials)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-029, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- Adsera, Alicia, 2005. "Where Are the Babies? Labor Market Conditions and Fertility in Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 1576, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Angela Luci & Olivier Thevenon, 2010.
"Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in OECD countries?,"
- Angela Luci & Olivier Thévenon, 2010. "Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in oecd countries ?," Working Papers 167, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED).
- Máire Ní Bhrolcháin, 2011. "Tempo and the TFR," Demography, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 841-861, August.
- Ian Dey & Fran Wasoff, 2010. "Another Child? Fertility Ideals, Resources and Opportunities," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer, vol. 29(6), pages 921-940, December.
- Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Evgueni M. Andreev & René Houle & James W. Vaupel, 2004. "To concentration of reproduction in cohorts of US and European women," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2004-027, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- Máire Ní Bhrolcháin & Éva Beaujouan, 2011. "Uncertainty in fertility intentions in Britain, 1979-2007," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 99-129.
- Joanna Z. Mishtal, 2009. "Understanding low fertility in Poland," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(20), pages 599-626, October.
- Alicia Adsera, 2011. "The interplay of employment uncertainty and education in explaining second births in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(16), pages 513-544, August.
- Joachim Ragnitz & Stefan Eichler & Beate Grundig & Harald Lehmann & Carsten Pohl & Lutz Schneider & Helmut Seitz & Marcel Thum, 2007. "Die demographische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland : Gutachten im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie," ifo Dresden Studien, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 41, December.
- Kiyosi Hirosima, 2010. "Another tempo distortion: analyzing controlled fertility by age-specific marital fertility rate," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2010-003, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- John Caldwell, 2008. "Three Fertility Compromises and Two Transitions," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 427-446, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.