IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ssefpa/v9y2017i4d10.1007_s12571-017-0702-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate variability and the volatility of global maize and soybean prices

Author

Listed:
  • Massimo Peri

    (University of Milan)

Abstract

Volatility in the price of agricultural commodities is one of the main factors affecting food security. Many studies have analyzed agricultural market instability from different points of view, but the effect of climate oscillations on agricultural price volatility has been little studied. Climate anomalies, and in particular extreme events, can alter agricultural yields and stocks with related effects on prices. This paper presents a Volatility Impulse Response Function (VIRF) from a multivariate GARCH model to investigate the effects of variability in climatic shocks (El Niño/Southern Oscillation - ENSO) on international maize and soybean price volatility from 1960 to 2014. For both commodities, VIRF analysis was conducted splitting the effect of El Niño and La Niña events according to Spring-Summer and Autumn-Winter meteorological seasons. Both events increase expected price volatility of maize, showing the strongest impact during the El Niño phase in Spring-Summer. Soybean price volatility tends to slightly decrease during Autumn-Winter meteorological seasons and to increase during the Spring-Summer period. To minimize the impact of ENSO events on commodity price volatility, various measures can be taken, both political and technical. Financial aspects should also be considered. It is possible that financial agents can use the ENSO index as information for trading activity, creating a new link between this index and volatility in commodity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Peri, 2017. "Climate variability and the volatility of global maize and soybean prices," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(4), pages 673-683, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:9:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s12571-017-0702-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s12571-017-0702-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12571-017-0702-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12571-017-0702-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian M. Hafner & Helmut Herwartz, 2008. "Testing for Causality in Variance Usinf Multivariate GARCH Models," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 89, pages 215-241.
    2. Toshichika Iizumi & Jing-Jia Luo & Andrew J. Challinor & Gen Sakurai & Masayuki Yokozawa & Hirofumi Sakuma & Molly E. Brown & Toshio Yamagata, 2014. "Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, September.
    3. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    4. Minot, Nicholas, 2014. "Food price volatility in sub-Saharan Africa: Has it really increased?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-56.
    5. Jin, Xiaoye & Xiaowen Lin, Sharon & Tamvakis, Michael, 2012. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2125-2134.
    6. Allan D. Brunner, 2002. "El Niño and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 176-183, February.
    7. Letson, David & McCullough, B.D., 2001. "ENSO and Soybean Prices: Correlation without Causality," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 513-521, December.
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5450 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    10. Jean-Paul Chavas & David Hummels & Brian D. Wright, 2014. "The Economics of Food Price Volatility," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number chav12-1, March.
    11. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in European electricity forward markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 758-770, July.
    12. N/A, 2015. "The UK Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 234(1), pages 3-3, November.
    13. Noah S. Diffenbaugh & Thomas W. Hertel & Martin Scherer & Monika Verma, 2012. "Response of corn markets to climate volatility under alternative energy futures," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(7), pages 514-518, July.
    14. Olson, Eric & J. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "The relationship between energy and equity markets: Evidence from volatility impulse response functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 297-305.
    15. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Hummels, David & Wright, Brian D. (ed.), 2014. "The Economics of Food Price Volatility," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226128924, December.
    16. David Ubilava, 2014. "El Niño Southern Oscillation and the fishmeal–soya bean meal price ratio: regime-dependent dynamics revisited," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(4), pages 583-604.
    17. Balcombe, Kelvin, 2009. "The Nature and Determinants of Volatility in Agricultural Prices," MPRA Paper 24819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. David Ubilava & Matt Holt, 2013. "El Niño southern oscillation and its effects on world vegetable oil prices: assessing asymmetries using smooth transition models," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 57(2), pages 273-297, April.
    19. Kalkuhl, Matthias & von Braun, Joachim & Torero, Maximo, 2016. "Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy," MPRA Paper 72164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Derrill D. Watson, 2017. "The political economy of food price policy during the global food price crisis of 2006-2008," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(3), pages 497-509, June.
    21. Rosamond L. Naylor & Walter P. Falcon, 2010. "Food Security in an Era of Economic Volatility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(4), pages 693-723, December.
    22. Massimo Peri & Lucia Baldi & Daniela Vandone, 2013. "Price discovery in commodity markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 397-403, March.
    23. Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2006. "Volatility impulse responses for multivariate GARCH models: An exchange rate illustration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 719-740, August.
    24. Julie Subervie, 2008. "The Variable Response of Agricultural Supply to World Price Instability in Developing Countries," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 72-92, February.
    25. Chen, Chi-Chung & McCarl, Bruce A., 2000. "The Value Of Enso Information To Agriculture: Consideration Of Event Strength And Trade," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 1-18, December.
    26. Jesse Tack & David Ubilava, 2013. "The effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation on U.S. corn production and downside risk," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(4), pages 689-700, December.
    27. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis, 2009. "Integration at a cost: evidence from volatility impulse response functions," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(11), pages 917-933.
    28. Richard M. Adams & Kelly J. Bryant & Bruce A. Mccarl & David M. Legler & James O'Brien & Andrew Solow & Rodney Weiher, 1995. "Value Of Improved Long‐Range Weather Information," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 10-19, July.
    29. Matthias Kalkuhl & Joachim von Braun & Maximo Torero (ed.), 2016. "Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-28201-5, June.
    30. Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2016. "Stock markets’ bubbles burst and volatility spillovers in agricultural commodity markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 277-285.
    31. N/A, 2015. "The UK economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 231(1), pages 3-3, February.
    32. David Ubilava & Matt Holt, 2013. "El Niño southern oscillation and its effects on world vegetable oil prices: assessing asymmetries using smooth transition models," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 57(2), pages 273-297, April.
    33. N/A, 2015. "The UK economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 232(1), pages 3-3, May.
    34. Grace, Kathryn & Brown, Molly & McNally, Amy, 2014. "Examining the link between food prices and food insecurity: A multi-level analysis of maize price and birthweight in Kenya," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 56-65.
    35. David Ubilava, 2012. "Modeling Nonlinearities in the U.S. Soybean‐to‐Corn Price Ratio: A Smooth Transition Autoregression Approach," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 29-41, January.
    36. Xiaohua Yu & Satoru Shimokawa, 2016. "Nutritional impacts of rising food prices in African countries: a review," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(5), pages 985-997, October.
    37. Frank Davenport & Chris Funk, 2015. "Using time series structural characteristics to analyze grain prices in food insecure countries," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 7(5), pages 1055-1070, October.
    38. David Ubilava, 2012. "El Niño, La Niña, and world coffee price dynamics," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(1), pages 17-26, January.
    39. N/A, 2015. "The UK Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 233(1), pages 3-3, August.
    40. Marc F. Bellemare, 2015. "Rising Food Prices, Food Price Volatility, and Social Unrest," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 1-21.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Navid Kargar Dehbidi & Mansour Zibaei & Mohammad Hassan Tarazkar, 2022. "The effect of climate change and energy shocks on food security in Iran's provinces," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 417-437, April.
    2. Krisha Lim & Bruno Wichmann & Martin K. Luckert & Peter Läderach, 2020. "Impacts of smallholder agricultural adaptation on food security: evidence from Africa, Asia, and Central America," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(1), pages 21-35, February.
    3. Erin Coughlan de Perez & Maarten van Aalst & Richard Choularton & Bart van den Hurk & Simon Mason & Hannah Nissan & Saroja Schwager, 2019. "From rain to famine: assessing the utility of rainfall observations and seasonal forecasts to anticipate food insecurity in East Africa," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(1), pages 57-68, February.
    4. Wei, Yu & Zhang, Jiahao & Chen, Yongfei & Wang, Yizhi, 2022. "The impacts of El Niño-southern oscillation on renewable energy stock markets: Evidence from quantile perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peri, Massimo, 2015. "Cliamte Variability and Agricultural Price volatility: the case of corn and soybeans," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212623, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Agie Wandala Putra & Jatna Supriatna & Raldi Hendro Koestoer & Tri Edhi Budhi Soesilo, 2021. "Differences in Local Rice Price Volatility, Climate, and Macroeconomic Determinants in the Indonesian Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Davinson Stev Abril‐Salcedo & Luis Fernando Melo‐Velandia & Daniel Parra‐Amado, 2020. "Nonlinear relationship between the weather phenomenon El niño and Colombian food prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(4), pages 1059-1086, October.
    4. Ubilava, David, 2017. "The ENSO Effect and Asymmetries in Wheat Price Dynamics," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 490-502.
    5. Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2016. "Stock markets’ bubbles burst and volatility spillovers in agricultural commodity markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 277-285.
    6. Zhu, Yichen & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2021. "Climate Anomalies and Its Impact on U.S. Corn and Soybean Prices," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315271, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2016. "Financial Markets and Agricultural Commodities: Volatility Impulse Response Analysis," 2016 International European Forum (151st EAAE Seminar), February 15-19, 2016, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 244461, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    8. David Ubilava, 2018. "The Role of El Niño Southern Oscillation in Commodity Price Movement and Predictability," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(1), pages 239-263.
    9. Matteo Bonato & Oğuzhan Çepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "El Niño, La Niña, and forecastability of the realized variance of agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from a machine learning approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 785-801, July.
    10. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2017. "Volatility spillover and multivariate volatility impulse response analysis of GFC news events," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(33), pages 3246-3262, July.
    11. Smith, Sarah C. & Ubilava, David, 2017. "The El Niño Southern Oscillation and Economic Growth in the Developing World," Working Papers 2017-11, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised May 2017.
    12. Atems, Bebonchu & Sardar, Naafey, 2021. "Exploring asymmetries in the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on U.S. food and agricultural stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-14.
    13. Jin, Xiaoye, 2015. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions among the Greater China stock markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 43-58.
    14. Jin, Xiaoye & An, Ximeng, 2016. "Global financial crisis and emerging stock market contagion: A volatility impulse response function approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 179-195.
    15. David Ubilava, 2014. "El Niño Southern Oscillation and the fishmeal–soya bean meal price ratio: regime-dependent dynamics revisited," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(4), pages 583-604.
    16. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "The (Asymmetric) effect of El Niño and La Niña on gold and silver prices in a GVAR model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    17. Balcilar, Mehmet & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Toparli, Elif Akay, 2018. "On the risk spillover across the oil market, stock market, and the oil related CDS sectors: A volatility impulse response approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 813-827.
    18. Listorti, Giulia & Esposti, Roberto, 2012. "Horizontal Price Transmission in Agricultural Markets: Fundamental Concepts and Open Empirical Issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-28, April.
    19. Ubilava, David & Orlowski, Jan, 2016. "The Predictive Content of Climate Anomalies for Agricultural Production: Does ENSO Really Matter?," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236281, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Luis Fernando Melo‐Velandia & Camilo Andrés Orozco‐Vanegas & Daniel Parra‐Amado, 2022. "Extreme weather events and high Colombian food prices: A non‐stationary extreme value approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(S1), pages 21-40, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:9:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s12571-017-0702-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.