Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in crude oil markets
AbstractUsing daily data from July 2005 to February 2011 for WTI, Dubai and Brent futures contracts, we employ a VAR-BEKK model to investigate crude oil markets integration on the second moment. We also quantify the size and persistence of these connections through the analysis of Volatility Impulse Response Functions (VIRF) for two historical shocks, namely the 2008 Financial Crisis and the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill. We observe that Brent and Dubai crude are highly responsive to market shocks, whereas WTI crude shows the least responsiveness of the three benchmarks, which creates questions about its predominance as a benchmark crude oil. Furthermore, we fit the density of the VIRF at different forecast horizons. These fitted distributions are asymmetric, showing that the probability of observing a large impact of a shock is lower while the probability of a relatively smaller impact is much higher. Finally, we simulate the VIRF for a given probability of a random shock. The VIRF shows that only a “large” shock (derived from a smaller probability) will result in an increase in expected conditional volatilities. These results provide useful insights into the volatility transmission mechanism in crude oil markets and their associated risk estimation, and may have significant implications for various market participants and regulators.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
Energy futures; Volatility; VIRF; Shocks;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Simon M. Potter, 1993.
"A Nonlinear Approach to U.S. GNP,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
693, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Jan Bentzen, 2007. "Does OPEC influence crude oil prices? Testing for co-movements and causality between regional crude oil prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(11), pages 1375-1385.
- Robert J. Weiner, 1991. "Is the World Oil Market "One Great Pool"?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 95-108.
- Lin, Sharon Xiaowen & Tamvakis, Michael N., 2001. "Spillover effects in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 43-56, January.
- Lee, Kevin C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 1993. "Persistence profiles and business cycle fluctuations in a disaggregated model of U.K. output growth," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 293-322, September.
- Lin, Wen-Ling, 1997. "Impulse Response Function for Conditional Volatility in GARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 15-25, January.
- Kaufmann, Robert K., 2011. "The role of market fundamentals and speculation in recent price changes for crude oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 105-115, January.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Roengchai Tansuchat, 2009.
"Modelling Conditional Correlations for Risk Diversification in Crude Oil Markets,"
CIRJE-F-640, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Roengchai Tansuchat, 2009. "Modelling Conditional Correlations for Risk Diversification in Crude Oil Markets," CARF F-Series CARF-F-162, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J. & Tansuchat, R., 2009. "Modelling conditional correlations for risk diversification in crude oil markets," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-11, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Meade, Nigel, 2010. "Oil prices -- Brownian motion or mean reversion? A study using a one year ahead density forecast criterion," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1485-1498, November.
- Lance J. Bachmeier & James M. Griffin, 2006. "Testing for Market Integration: Crude Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 55-72.
- Nomikos, Nikos K. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2011. "Forecasting petroleum futures markets volatility: The role of regimes and market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 321-337, March.
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Pierse, R.G. & Lee, K.C., 1990.
"Persistence, Cointegration And Aggregation: A Disaggregated Analysis Of Output Fluctuations In The U.S. Economy,"
25, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Pierse, R. G. & Lee, K. C., 1993. "Persistence, cointegration, and aggregation : A disaggregated analysis of output fluctuations in the U.S. economy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 57-88, March.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Pierse, R.G. & Lee, K.C., 1990. "Persistence, Cointegration And Aggregation: A Disaggregated Analysis Of Output Fluctuations In The Us Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9020, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Weiner, R.J., 1991. "Is the World Oil Market "One Great Pool?"," Papers 9120, Laval - Recherche en Energie.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance,"
497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bradley Ewing & Cynthia Lay Harter, 2000. "Co-movements of Alaska North Slope and UK Brent crude oil prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(8), pages 553-558.
- Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq & Ozfidan, Ozkan, 2002. "Volatility transmission in the oil and natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 525-538, November.
- Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1993. "Nonlinear Dynamic Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 871-907, July.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
- S. Gurcan Gulen, 1999. "Regionalization in the World Crude Oil Market: Further Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 125-139.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?,"
8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- M.A. Adelman, 1992. "Is the World Oil Market 'One Great Pool'? -- Comment," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
- Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis, 2009. "Integration at a cost: evidence from volatility impulse response functions," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(11), pages 917-933.
- Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2006.
"Volatility impulse responses for multivariate GARCH models: An exchange rate illustration,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 719-740, August.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Hafner-Herwartz volatility impulse response functions," Statistical Software Components RTZ00183, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
- Thomas William Dorsey & Mika Saito & Armine Khachatryan & Irena Asmundson & Ioana Niculcea, 2011. "Trade and Trade Finance in the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 11/16, International Monetary Fund.
- Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
- PIERRET, Diane, 2013. "The systemic risk of energy markets," CORE Discussion Papers 2013018, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.