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Volatility impulse response functions for multivariate GARCH models

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  • HAFNER, Christian M.

    ()
    (Institut fur Statistik und Okonometrie, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultat, Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin, and CORE, Université catholique de Louvain)

  • HERWARTZ, Helmut

    ()
    (Institut fur Statistik und Okonometrie, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultat, Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin)

Abstract

In the empirical analysis of financial time series, multivariate GARCH models have been used in various forms.In most cases it is not well understood how the use of a restricted model has to be paid with loss of valuable information. We investigate the structural implications of two alternative models for the response of the conditional (co-)variances to independent shocks. The impulse response analysis, adopted to volatility models, appears to be a convenient methodology to obtain information on the interaction of financial series. We define volatility impulse response functions and provide an empirical analysis for a bivariate exchange rate series. For the analyzed series, the impulse response function of the correlation reveals strong discrepancies between the estimated diagonal and BEKK models. This indicates that the diagonality restriction may hide important structural properties of the series.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 1998047.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:1998047

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Keywords: Multivariate GARCH; impulse response functions; exchange rate volatility.;

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References

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  1. Bauwens, L. & Lubrano, M., 1997. "Bayesian Option Pricing Using Asymmetric GARCH," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 97a40, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
  2. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-27, July.
  3. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1993. "Nonlinear Dynamic Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 871-907, July.
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  7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  8. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  9. Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 1998. "Testing for linear autoregressive dynamics under heteroskedasticity," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,7, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  11. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  12. Lin, Wen-Ling, 1997. "Impulse Response Function for Conditional Volatility in GARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 15-25, January.
  13. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(03), pages 318-334, September.
  14. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Persistence in Conditional Variances," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 167-86, January.
  15. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  16. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Hafner, Christian M. & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2007. "Semiparametric Multivariate Volatility Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(02), pages 251-280, April.
  2. Walid Ben Omrane & Christian M. Hafner, 2009. "Information Spillover, Volatility and the Currency Markets for the Binary Choice Model," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 1(1), pages 50-62, April.
  3. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Oscar Reinaldo Becerra Camargo, 2006. "Una Aproximación a La Dinámica de las Tasas de Interés de Corto Plazo en Colombia a través de Modelos GARCH Multivariados," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003694, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Olan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "Time Variation And Asymmetry In The World Price Of Covariance Risk: The Implications For International Diversification," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 907, The University of Melbourne.
  5. Hafner, Christian M., 2000. "Fourth moments of multivariate GARCH processes," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,80, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  6. E.Panopoulou & T. Pantelidis, 2005. "Integration at a cost: Evidence from volatility impulse response functions," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1540305, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  7. Kalvinder Shields & Nilss Olekalns & Ãlan T. Henry & Chris Brooks, 2005. "Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 362-370, May.

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