IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v38y2016icp277-285.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stock markets’ bubbles burst and volatility spillovers in agricultural commodity markets

Author

Listed:
  • Baldi, Lucia
  • Peri, Massimo
  • Vandone, Daniela

Abstract

Our paper focuses on commodity financialization and the gradual integration between commodity and financial markets, investigating to what extent shocks in stock markets impact commodity price volatility, and the persistency of the phenomenon. To this end, we estimate Volatility Impulse Response Function from stock markets to agricultural commodity markets over a symmetric window before and after two of the most important bubble bursts since the new millennium, the 2000 dot.com bubble and the 2008 financial crises. Results highlight that volatility spillover increased significantly after the 2008 financial crises, signalling a rising interconnection between financial and agricultural commodity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2016. "Stock markets’ bubbles burst and volatility spillovers in agricultural commodity markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 277-285.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:38:y:2016:i:c:p:277-285
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2016.04.020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027553191630085X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2016.04.020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Goldfarb, Brent & Kirsch, David & Miller, David A., 2007. "Was there too little entry during the Dot Com Era?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 100-144, October.
    2. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J. Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2015. "Multivariate Volatility Impulse Response Analysis of GFC News Events," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2015-10, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    3. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    4. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2015. "Volatility returns with vengeance: Financial markets vs. commodities," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 334-354.
    5. Jin, Xiaoye & Xiaowen Lin, Sharon & Tamvakis, Michael, 2012. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2125-2134.
    6. Delatte, Anne-Laure & Lopez, Claude, 2013. "Commodity and equity markets: Some stylized facts from a copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5346-5356.
    7. Masset, Philippe & Weisskopf, Jean-Philippe, 2010. "Raise Your Glass: Wine Investment And The Financial Crisis," Working Papers 90484, American Association of Wine Economists.
    8. Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas, 2015. "Diversifying finance research: From financialization to sustainability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-6.
    9. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in European electricity forward markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 758-770, July.
    10. Huchet, Nicolas & Fam, Papa Gueye, 2016. "The role of speculation in international futures markets on commodity prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 49-65.
    11. Adams, Zeno & Glück, Thorsten, 2015. "Financialization in commodity markets: A passing trend or the new normal?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 93-111.
    12. Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2014. "Clean energy industries and rare earth materials: Economic and financial issues," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 53-61.
    13. Ing-Haw Cheng & Andrei Kirilenko & Wei Xiong, 2015. "Convective Risk Flows in Commodity Futures Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(5), pages 1733-1781.
    14. Nicolas Huchet & Papa Gueye Fam, 2016. "The role of speculation in international futures markets on commodity prices," Post-Print hal-03591560, HAL.
    15. Massimo Peri & Lucia Baldi & Daniela Vandone, 2013. "Price discovery in commodity markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 397-403, March.
    16. Sanning, Lee W. & Shaffer, Sherrill L. & Sharratt, Jo Marie, 2007. "Alternative investments: the case of wine," Working Papers 37322, American Association of Wine Economists.
    17. Geman, Hélyette & Kharoubi, Cécile, 2008. "WTI crude oil Futures in portfolio diversification: The time-to-maturity effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2553-2559, December.
    18. Massimo PERI & Daniela VANDONE & Lucia BALDI, 2012. "Internet, noise trading and commodity prices," Departmental Working Papers 2012-07, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    19. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Rong, Wu & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2015. "Herding on fundamental information: A comparative study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 589-598.
    20. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    21. E.Panopoulou & T. Pantelidis, 2005. "Integration at a cost: Evidence from volatility impulse response functions," Economics Department Working Paper Series n1540305, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    22. Karyotis, Catherine & Alijani, Sharam, 2016. "Soft commodities and the global financial crisis: Implications for the economy, resources and institutions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 350-359.
    23. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13359 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Lucia BALDI & Massimo PERI & Daniela VANDONE, 2013. "Clean Energy Industries and Rare Earth Materials: Economic and Financial Issues," Departmental Working Papers 2013-07, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    25. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5450 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Olson, Eric & J. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "The relationship between energy and equity markets: Evidence from volatility impulse response functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 297-305.
    27. Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Should investors include commodities in their portfolios after all? New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2606-2626, October.
    28. Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2006. "Volatility impulse responses for multivariate GARCH models: An exchange rate illustration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 719-740, August.
    29. Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela & Baldi, Lucia, 2014. "Internet, noise trading and commodity futures prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 82-89.
    30. Basco, Sergi, 2014. "Globalization and financial development: A model of the Dot-Com and the Housing Bubbles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 78-94.
    31. Scott H. Irwin & Dwight R. Sanders, 2011. "Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31.
    32. Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas, 2015. "Diversifying finance research: From financialization to sustainability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-6.
    33. Adams, Zeno & Glueck, Thorsten, 2014. "Financialization in Commodity Markets: A Passing Trend or the New Normal?," Working Papers on Finance 1413, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Aug 2015.
    34. Black, Fischer, 1986. "Noise," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 529-543, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Julyerme M. Tonin & Carlos M. R. Vieira & Rui M. de Sousa Fragoso & João G. Martines Filho, 2020. "Conditional correlation and volatility between spot and futures markets for soybean and corn," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 707-724, October.
    2. Dejan Živkov & Jasmina Đurašković & Marina Gajić‐Glamočlija, 2022. "Multiscale downside risk interdependence between the major agricultural commodities," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 990-1011, October.
    3. Fasanya, Ismail O. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun & Sonola, Ridwan, 2023. "Forecasting stock prices with commodity prices: New evidence from Feasible Quasi Generalized Least Squares (FQGLS) with non-linearities," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    4. Massimo Peri, 2017. "Climate variability and the volatility of global maize and soybean prices," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(4), pages 673-683, August.
    5. Zhu, Xuehong & Chen, Ying & Chen, Jinyu, 2021. "Effects of non-ferrous metal prices and uncertainty on industry stock market under different market conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Fijorek, Kamil & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2019. "What drives food price volatility? Evidence based on a generalized VAR approach applied to the food, financial and energy markets," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-32.
    7. de Oliveira, Felipe A. & Maia, Sinézio F. & de Jesus, Diego P. & Besarria, Cássio da N., 2018. "Which information matters to market risk spreading in Brazil? Volatility transmission modelling using MGARCH-BEKK, DCC, t-Copulas," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 83-100.
    8. Garcia-Jorcano, Laura & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia, 2022. "Spillover effects between commodity and stock markets: A SDSES approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Obojska, Lidia, 2023. "Do commodity markets catch a cold from stock markets? Modelling uncertainty spillovers using Google search trends and wavelet coherence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    10. Elena Claire Ricci & Massimo Peri & Lucia Baldi, 2019. "The Effects of Agricultural Price Instability on Vertical Price Transmission: A Study of the Wheat Chain in Italy," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-14, February.
    11. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan & Hanwen Kang, 2023. "Price bubbles of agricultural commodities: evidence from China’s futures market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 195-222, January.
    12. Akyildirim, Erdinc & Cepni, Oguzhan & Pham, Linh & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2022. "How connected is the agricultural commodity market to the news-based investor sentiment?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    13. Agyei, Samuel Kwaku & Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness between global commodity sectors, news sentiment, and sub-Saharan African equities," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    14. Zhang, Weiping & Zhuang, Xintian & Lu, Yang, 2020. "Spatial spillover effects and risk contagion around G20 stock markets based on volatility network," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    15. Felipe de Oliveira & Sinézio Fernandes Maia & Diego Pita de Jesus, 2017. "Which information matters to Market risk spreading in Brazil? Volatility transmission modeling using MGARH-BEKK, DCC, t-COPULAS," EcoMod2017 10378, EcoMod.
    16. Guhathakurta, Kousik & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2020. "Period specific volatility spillover based connectedness between oil and other commodity prices and their portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    17. Xiaochun Liu, 2018. "Structural Volatility Impulse Response Function and Asymptotic Inference," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 316-339.
    18. de Souza Ramser, Claudia Aline & Souza, Adriano Mendonça & Souza, Francisca Mendonça & da Veiga, Claudimar Pereira & da Silva, Wesley Vieira, 2019. "The importance of principal components in studying mineral prices using vector autoregressive models: Evidence from the Brazilian economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 9-21.
    19. Jung-Bin Su & Jui-Cheng Hung, 2018. "The Value-At-Risk Estimate of Stock and Currency-Stock Portfolios’ Returns," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-42, November.
    20. Zhang, Weiping & Zhuang, Xintian & Lu, Yang & Wang, Jian, 2020. "Spatial linkage of volatility spillovers and its explanation across G20 stock markets: A network framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2016. "Financial Markets and Agricultural Commodities: Volatility Impulse Response Analysis," 2016 International European Forum (151st EAAE Seminar), February 15-19, 2016, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 244461, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    2. Massimo Peri, 2017. "Climate variability and the volatility of global maize and soybean prices," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(4), pages 673-683, August.
    3. Hamadi, Hassan & Bassil, Charbel & Nehme, Tamara, 2017. "News surprises and volatility spillover among agricultural commodities: The case of corn, wheat, soybean and soybean oil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 148-157.
    4. Georgios Bampinas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2017. "Oil and stock markets before and after financial crises: A local Gaussian correlation approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(12), pages 1179-1204, December.
    5. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2017. "Volatility spillover and multivariate volatility impulse response analysis of GFC news events," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(33), pages 3246-3262, July.
    6. Jin, Xiaoye & An, Ximeng, 2016. "Global financial crisis and emerging stock market contagion: A volatility impulse response function approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 179-195.
    7. Peri, Massimo, 2015. "Cliamte Variability and Agricultural Price volatility: the case of corn and soybeans," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212623, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Jin, Xiaoye, 2015. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions among the Greater China stock markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 43-58.
    9. Amar, Amine Ben & Goutte, Stéphane & Isleimeyyeh, Mohammad & Benkraiem, Ramzi, 2022. "Commodity markets dynamics: What do cross-commodities over different nearest-to-maturities tell us?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2017. "Time-frequency contained co-movement of crude oil and world food prices: A wavelet-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 230-239.
    11. Balcilar, Mehmet & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Toparli, Elif Akay, 2018. "On the risk spillover across the oil market, stock market, and the oil related CDS sectors: A volatility impulse response approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 813-827.
    12. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Obojska, Lidia, 2023. "Do commodity markets catch a cold from stock markets? Modelling uncertainty spillovers using Google search trends and wavelet coherence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    13. Bekiros, Stelios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sandoval Junior, Leonidas & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2017. "Information diffusion, cluster formation and entropy-based network dynamics in equity and commodity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(3), pages 945-961.
    14. Alessandro Banterle & Daniela Vandone, 2019. "Price volatility and risk management: The case of rice in the EU," Economia agro-alimentare, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 21(2), pages 255-274.
    15. Xiaochun Liu, 2018. "Structural Volatility Impulse Response Function and Asymptotic Inference," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 316-339.
    16. Bianchi, Robert J. & Fan, John Hua & Todorova, Neda, 2020. "Financialization and de-financialization of commodity futures: A quantile regression approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    17. Dejan Živkov & Jovan Njegiæ & Mirela Momèiloviæ, 2018. "Bidirectional spillover effect between Russian stock index and the selected commodities," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(1), pages 29-53.
    18. Assefa, Tsion & Meuwissen, Miranda & Lansink, Alfons G.J.M., 2015. "Food scares and price volatility: the case of German and Spanish pig chains," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 210966, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Duc Khuong Nguyen & Nikolas Topaloglou & Thomas Walther, 2020. "Asset Classes and Portfolio Diversification: Evidence from a Stochastic Spanning Approach," Working Papers 2020-009, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    20. Raza, Syed Ali & Guesmi, Khaled & Belaid, Fateh & Shah, Nida, 2022. "Time-frequency causality and connectedness between oil price shocks and the world food prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock markets’ bubbles; Financialization; Volatility spillover; Agricultural commodity market; VIRF;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:38:y:2016:i:c:p:277-285. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.