Should investors include commodities in their portfolios after all? New evidence
AbstractThis paper investigates whether an investor is made better off by including commodities in a portfolio that consists of traditional asset classes. First, we revisit the posed question within an in-sample setting by employing mean-variance and non-mean-variance spanning tests. Then, we form optimal portfolios by taking into account the higher order moments of the portfolio returns distribution and evaluate their out-of-sample performance. Under the in-sample setting, we find that commodities are beneficial only to non-mean-variance investors. However, these benefits are not preserved out-of-sample. Our findings challenge the alleged diversification benefits of commodities and are robust across a number of performance evaluation measures, utility functions and datasets. The results hold even when transaction costs are considered and across various sub-periods. Not surprisingly, the only exception appears over the 2005-2008 unprecedented commodity boom period.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.
Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 10 (October)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf
Asset allocation Commodity boom Commodity futures Commodity indexes Spanning Performance evaluation;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gary Gorton, 2009.
"Information, Liquidity, and the (Ongoing) Panic of 2007,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 567-72, May.
- Gary B. Gorton, 2009. "Information, Liquidity, and the (Ongoing) Panic of 2007," NBER Working Papers 14649, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jondeau, E. & Rockinger, M., 2004.
"Optimal Portfolio Allocation Under Higher Moments,"
108, Banque de France.
- repec:wop:humbsf:1996-63 is not listed on IDEAS
- Roon, F.A. de & Nijman, T.E. & Werker, B.J.M., 2003.
"Currency hedging for international stock portfolios: The usefulness of mean variance analysis,"
Open Access publications from Tilburg University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-91684, Tilburg University.
- de Roon, Frans A. & Nijman, Theo E. & Werker, Bas J. M., 2003. "Currency hedging for international stock portfolios: The usefulness of mean-variance analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 327-349, February.
- Joost Driessen & Pascal Maenhout, 2007. "An Empirical Portfolio Perspective on Option Pricing Anomalies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 11(4), pages 561-603.
- Jobson, J D & Korkie, Bob M, 1981. "Performance Hypothesis Testing with the Sharpe and Treynor Measures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 889-908, September.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991.
"Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-62, April.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," NBER Technical Working Papers 0089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of security market data for models of dynamic economies," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Harrison Hong & Motohiro Yogo, 2011.
"What Does Futures Market Interest Tell Us about the Macroeconomy and Asset Prices?,"
NBER Working Papers
16712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hong, Harrison & Yogo, Motohiro, 2012. "What does futures market interest tell us about the macroeconomy and asset prices?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 473-490.
- Leyuan You & Robert T. Daigler, 2010. "Using Four-Moment Tail Risk to Examine Financial and Commodity Instrument Diversification," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1101-1123, November.
- Gary Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Rouwenhorst, 2007.
"The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
amz2605, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Oct 2008.
- Chng, Michael T., 2009. "Economic linkages across commodity futures: Hedging and trading implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 958-970, May.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Galvani, Valentina & Plourde, André, 2010.
"Portfolio diversification in energy markets,"
Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 257-268, March.
- F. A. d. ROON & T. E. NIJMAN & B. J. WERKER, 1996.
"Testing for Spanning with Futures Contracts and Nontraded Assets: A general Approach,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1996,63, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Nijman, T.E. & Roon, F.A. de & Werker, B.J.M., 1996. "Testing for Spanning with Futrures Contracts and Nontraded Assets: A General Approach," Discussion Paper 1996-83, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Chantziara, Thalia & Skiadopoulos, George, 2008. "Can the dynamics of the term structure of petroleum futures be forecasted? Evidence from major markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 962-985, May.
- Alexandros Kostakis & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou & George Skiadopoulos, 2011. "Market Timing with Option-Implied Distributions: A Forward-Looking Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(7), pages 1231-1249, July.
- Miffre, Joelle & Rallis, Georgios, 2007. "Momentum strategies in commodity futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1863-1886, June.
- Dirk G. Baur & Thomas K. McDermott, .
"Is gold a safe haven? International evidence,"
The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series
- Szakmary, Andrew C. & Shen, Qian & Sharma, Subhash C., 2010. "Trend-following trading strategies in commodity futures: A re-examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 409-426, February.
- Radetzki, Marian, 2006. "The anatomy of three commodity booms," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 56-64, March.
- Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
- Peiro, Amado, 1999. "Skewness in financial returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 847-862, June.
- Geman, Hélyette & Kharoubi, Cécile, 2008. "WTI crude oil Futures in portfolio diversification: The time-to-maturity effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2553-2559, December.
- Gul, Faruk, 1991. "A Theory of Disappointment Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 667-86, May.
- Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Miffre, Joëlle & Rallis, Georgios, 2010. "Tactical allocation in commodity futures markets: Combining momentum and term structure signals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2530-2548, October.
- Marshall, Ben R. & Cahan, Rochester H. & Cahan, Jared M., 2008. "Can commodity futures be profitably traded with quantitative market timing strategies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1810-1819, September.
- Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2009. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4423-4461, November.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.